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Noll0317 · Veteran Member

RE: A post test service for all of you. - UPDATED 10/21 @ 1630 hrs

Wingnut · Senior Member

My case in point is #121, one of the jury duty questions. I know for a fact by checking the patrol guide that the answer is C. Now our spreadsheet shows it's a tossup between A and C. The whole thing isn't perfect, but mathematically, it's impossible for it NOT to be fairly accurate.

32forLife · Veteran Member

MJV231 wrote:
ok someone explain this to me please cause im going crazy and as much as i tell myself this cant be too accurate (not saying im not grateful gamblor) but the popular answer doesnt mean its the right answer... there are a couple of question there its marking incorrect because the majority picked something else. I know for a fact that 2 questions are being marked incorrect and they were correct... specifically question 4 which was the force figure question... i am extremely confident it was choice A. which was 41.. and there is another question which my colleague feels strongly about and explained it to me and i agreed i was wrong, and again that question is being marked incorrect because the popular answer is not the one that "is" correct.
so statistically what conclusion can we draw from the logarithm?
im sorry i have nothing better to do, i would have normally been studying... lol still trying to get use to the fact that i actually have nothing to do, while im home...

I wanted to add this.... the majority of the people are not getting 90 - 100... they are getting 70 - 80
the answer would've been 41...if you missed where it said the force figures should not include any police officers(not lt's or sgts) who start on or after 1100..

-- Edited by MJV231 on Monday 21st of October 2013 09:01:24 PM

MJV231 · Veteran Member

Wingnut wrote:
MJV231 wrote:
ok someone explain this to me please cause im going crazy and as much as i tell myself this cant be too accurate (not saying im not grateful gamblor) but the popular answer doesnt mean its the right answer... there are a couple of question there its marking incorrect because the majority picked something else. I know for a fact that 2 questions are being marked incorrect and they were correct... specifically question 4 which was the force figure question... i am extremely confident it was choice A. which was 41.. and there is another question which my colleague feels strongly about and explained it to me and i agreed i was wrong, and again that question is being marked incorrect because the popular answer is not the one that "is" correct.
so statistically what conclusion can we draw from the logarithm?
im sorry i have nothing better to do, i would have normally been studying... lol still trying to get use to the fact that i actually have nothing to do, while im home...

I wanted to add this.... the majority of the people are not getting 90 - 100... they are getting 70 - 80

-- Edited by MJV231 on Monday 21st of October 2013 09:01:24 PM

First, EVERYONE is always very confident of their force figure number. It's always a toss up between the four as to which is the most popular. It's basic statistics.. There is a high chance that the most popular answer is going to be correct. Mathematically, there's a good chance that even though a question you think you got right even though it's not the most popular, the opposite will occur nearly as often.

So let me get this straight STATISTICALLY the popular answer is the right one????? really dude???? i didnt realize so many people score 100 on this test...

if one person scored a 100 on the test and plugged in their answers into this logarithm i doubt it will show him have a 100...

again i am grateful for the logarithm, and there is something to be read from it but the accuracy will not be good, too many variables,

32forLife · Veteran Member

you notify co when its 7 days...if you have more than 7 days notice you notify ico and they adjust your rdos...so no c is not correct...

33fornow · Veteran Member

Well feel better now my score went up Best case 100 worst 70 and most likely 80.

Zmann · Member

Jury duty question?

Wingnut · Senior Member

32forLife wrote:
you notify co when its 7 days...if you have more than 7 days notice you notify ico and they adjust your rdos...so no c is not correct...

Please show me the part of 205-26 that states what you just wrote.

Jdawg · Veteran Member

Guys lets not give answers out for those who didn't take the test yet. It would be unfair. What I do suggest is let's PM each other and write down questions that we think we're misleading or on the fence. Remember, the promotional school teachers such as mike Yanosik used to be our voice when they protested material because they could recite the s**t from the PG directly from memory. If we all collaborate and join forces, we can protest the same questions.

Wingnut · Senior Member

MJV,

Yes that is what I am saying. Statistically, the most popular answer is usually going to be correct.

The ones with the moderate and low level of confidence are the ones where the voting is too close to call. Statistically, you're going to get about half of those correct. The sample size isn't huge so of course there will be some deviance, but for the most part the math will be pretty close.

Dresch58 · Senior Member

Anyone know when they are going to cut the last list and when this one is going to be established?????

scotty2 · Member

best possible:98
most likely:ref
worst possible:60

ummmm...........what?

seamus · Senior Member

your right in a sense that passing scores will vary greatly from what you see, but if it looks like you got 30 or less wrong out of the 130 you can feel pretty good about passing.

Gamblor · Senior Member

scotty2 wrote:
best possible:98
most likely:ref
worst possible:60

ummmm...........what?

Download a fresh copy and either put your answers in manually, or copy and paste special as just values. You broke something. :)

MJV231 · Veteran Member

seamus wrote:
your right in a sense that passing scores will vary greatly from what you see, but if it looks like you got 30 or less wrong out of the 130 you can feel pretty good about passing.

now this makes sense to me.. lol... especially when i got 33 different answers...

Gamblor · Senior Member

MJV231 wrote:
hmmm... I guess i am missing something... because without knowing which are the 30 experimental questions the variable is too big to have it accurate...

-- Edited by MJV231 on Monday 21st of October 2013 10:06:41 PM

So, the 30 research questions make this much more difficult, however, some assumptions can be made.

1) The research questions are similar in form, difficulty, and substance as non-research questions.

2) The research questions are placed randomly throughout the exam.

#2 has been confirmed by DCAS, and #1 seems very likely judging by feedback from people that took the test. As such, it stands to reason that you have the same chance of answering a research question correctly, or incorrectly, as a non-research question. With that, I can deduce the statistical probability of X number of research questions being within the questions you have wrong, where X varies depending on how many you answered incorrectly.

Will it be accurate for everyone? No. However, it should be pretty close for most people.

cop · Senior Member

Best 89 most likely 66 worst 56 don't know what to think gamblor help

Gamblor · Senior Member

cop wrote:
Best 89 most likely 66 worst 56 don't know what to think gamblor help

The Most Likely number is going to be the most accurate. For the either extreme, they are low probability. It isn't hard for it to deviate a few points so I think you are definitely borderline passing. If you pick up some on doubles / throw outs, all the better.

pickpocketguy · Member

best:100
most likely:76
worst:66

gamblor? pass or fail?

JudgeDredd · Senior Member

Just plugged in my numbers, got
Best: 100
Most likely: 74
Worst: 65

scotty2 · Member

Gamblor wrote:
scotty2 wrote:
best possible:98
most likely:ref
worst possible:60

ummmm...........what?
Download a fresh copy and either put your answers in manually, or copy and paste special as just values. You broke something. :)

have a link? Can't seem to find anything

Wingnut · Senior Member

Best 100, ML 80, Worst 72

Hazalkidd · Member

IM LOST I GOT A

BEST SCORE 92

MOST LIKELY 69

WORST POSS 59

CAN SOMEONE HELP ME LET ME KNOW WHAT IT MEANS?????????? GAMBLOR IF YOU CAN

32forLife · Veteran Member

Hazalkidd wrote:
IM LOST I GOT A
BEST SCORE 92
MOST LIKELY 69
WORST POSS 59

CAN SOMEONE HELP ME LET ME KNOW WHAT IT MEANS?????????? GAMBLOR IF YOU CAN

means your not passing without help

Hazalkidd · Member

92 RIGHT OUT OF 130 AND STILL FAIL????? SMH

seamus · Senior Member

POSSIBILITY OF failing. All depends on what questions do not count

bluedragon · Veteran Member

Best score 100
Likely score 81
Worst case 74

bluedragon · Veteran Member

Is the protest usually on a saturday or during the week?

ManHands · Senior Member

Wingnut, I have your scores as well.

Best 100
ML 81
Worst 73

I can assume with these scores I am safe and guaranteed passing????

Hazalkidd, don't worry, thats pretty close. I mean...you might fail, but you might also pass. The most likely score seems pretty accurate and seems like it can differ by a few points positively or negatively.

32forLife · Veteran Member

ManHands wrote:
Wingnut, I have your scores as well.

Best 100
ML 81
Worst 73

I can assume with these scores I am safe and guaranteed passing????

Hazalkidd, don't worry, thats pretty close. I mean...you might fail, but you might also pass. The most likely score seems pretty accurate and seems like it can differ by a few points positively or negatively.

if your worst is higher than 70 u have almost 98% chance of passing

gptrich · Member

Potential Score
Best Possible 100
Most Likely 74
Worst Possible 64

What does that mean exactly probably pass or proably fail?

bluedragon · Veteran Member

Thank you gamblor for your patience in helping us with our impatience!

nupecop · Senior Member

How do I do this program I want to get an idea of my score

Wingnut · Senior Member

Hazalkidd wrote:
IM LOST I GOT A
BEST SCORE 92
MOST LIKELY 69
WORST POSS 59

CAN SOMEONE HELP ME LET ME KNOW WHAT IT MEANS?????????? GAMBLOR IF YOU CAN

In a nutshell,

Your best score of 92 is based on the assumption that you got ALL 30 research questions wrong, leaving you with a highest possible test score on the 100 good ones. It also assumes you got EVERY toss up question right (which very highly probably didn't happen either).

Your worst score assumes the exact opposite, that you got the 30 research q's correct leaving all those wrong answers as part of your 100, as well getting EVERY toss up wrong as well.

The most likely score uses some basic probability equations between the two. The issue I have with the most likely score is that 30 out of 130 is a very small sample size to assume that the percentage of right/wrong answers on the 100 will be pretty close to what you did with the 30 that won't count. My issue is that unlike just using numbers, no two patrol guide questions are alike, with some being ground balls and some being very difficult.

In the past, this method has been VERY accurate for the overwhelming majority of people who used it to compare their answers to. Of course there are always going to be a few questions that go against the grain, but not many. THIS answer key will be less accurate than usual because there is no telling what 30 questions do not count.

cop · Senior Member

Talking with another test taker he told me the top 30 incorrect by all test takers arrested getting tossed to make it fair is this possible I don't believe it

32forLife · Veteran Member

cop wrote:
Talking with another test taker he told me the top 30 incorrect by all test takers arrested getting tossed to make it fair is this possible I don't believe it

absolute nonsense...

32forLife · Veteran Member

yougonow wrote:
Ok.. I did it this way on my own breakdown but with obvious help from the great spreadsheet.

I counted 1-100, I got a 30 wrong!

1-130, I got 45 wrong total.

Too close to comfort but I am content with it.
-- Edited by yougonow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:25:44 AM

start studying for next one buddy

yougonow · Guru

Yea im gonna start studying for exams off this job and make real money else where. A place you don't have to strive to make supervisor and make crap pay.

carman728 · Veteran Member

32forLife wrote:
yougonow wrote:
Ok.. I did it this way on my own breakdown but with obvious help from the great spreadsheet.

I counted 1-100, I got a 30 wrong!

1-130, I got 45 wrong total.

Too close to comfort but I am content with it.
-- Edited by yougonow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:25:44 AM
start studying for next one buddy

I disagree... I think you have a chance with 45. Anything more than that is prob out of luck. There are a guaranteed 30 questions not counting, and then consider a few thrown out. There's always a chance.

nupecop · Senior Member

What's the website?

nupecop · Senior Member

Hello can someone help me please would like to grade my answer key too lol

youcallwebrawl · Veteran Member

Hey Gamblor, thanks for putting up the spreadsheet. I got 100 best case, most likely 78, worst case 68 with a a total of 31 wrong out of the 130. Not too bad.

32forLife · Veteran Member

Arrow wrote:
carman728 wrote:
32forLife wrote:
yougonow wrote:
Ok.. I did it this way on my own breakdown but with obvious help from the great spreadsheet.

I counted 1-100, I got a 30 wrong!

1-130, I got 45 wrong total.

Too close to comfort but I am content with it.
-- Edited by yougonow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:25:44 AM
start studying for next one buddy
I disagree... I think you have a chance with 45. Anything more than that is prob out of luck. There are a guaranteed 30 questions not counting, and then consider a few thrown out. There's always a chance.
I only got to finished 112.
on the first 100 I got 84/100 and adding the next 12. 94/112. So that makes me 94/130. What do u think

-- Edited by Arrow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:43:20 AM

you did very well compared to amount you answered

yougonow · Guru

Arrow wrote:
carman728 wrote:
32forLife wrote:
yougonow wrote:
Ok.. I did it this way on my own breakdown but with obvious help from the great spreadsheet.

I counted 1-100, I got a 30 wrong!

1-130, I got 45 wrong total.

Too close to comfort but I am content with it.
-- Edited by yougonow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:25:44 AM
start studying for next one buddy
I disagree... I think you have a chance with 45. Anything more than that is prob out of luck. There are a guaranteed 30 questions not counting, and then consider a few thrown out. There's always a chance.
I only got to finished 112.
on the first 100 I got 84/100 and adding the next 12. 94/112. So that makes me 94/130. What do u think

-- Edited by Arrow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:43:20 AM

You look better than me.

Arrow · Senior Member

yougonow wrote:
Arrow wrote:
carman728 wrote:
32forLife wrote:
yougonow wrote:
Ok.. I did it this way on my own breakdown but with obvious help from the great spreadsheet.

I counted 1-100, I got a 30 wrong!

1-130, I got 45 wrong total.

Too close to comfort but I am content with it.
-- Edited by yougonow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:25:44 AM
start studying for next one buddy
I disagree... I think you have a chance with 45. Anything more than that is prob out of luck. There are a guaranteed 30 questions not counting, and then consider a few thrown out. There's always a chance.
I only got to finished 112.
on the first 100 I got 84/100 and adding the next 12. 94/112. So that makes me 94/130. What do u think

-- Edited by Arrow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:43:20 AM
You look better than me.

True Yougonow. But u got the last 18 that might count that I dont have.

carman728 · Veteran Member

Arrow wrote:
carman728 wrote:
32forLife wrote:
yougonow wrote:
Ok.. I did it this way on my own breakdown but with obvious help from the great spreadsheet.

I counted 1-100, I got a 30 wrong!

1-130, I got 45 wrong total.

Too close to comfort but I am content with it.
-- Edited by yougonow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:25:44 AM
start studying for next one buddy
I disagree... I think you have a chance with 45. Anything more than that is prob out of luck. There are a guaranteed 30 questions not counting, and then consider a few thrown out. There's always a chance.
I only got to finished 112.
on the first 100 I got 84/100 and adding the next 12. 94/112. So that makes me 94/130. What do u think

-- Edited by Arrow on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 12:43:20 AM

I'm confident for you. I got 45 different, i don't know how to feel. But I think it's sad you answered 94 correctly and have to worry about passing. That's ridiculous.

Wingnut · Senior Member

Arrow, since you knew you only had a minute or two to go, why didn't you just fill in all C's or whatever, you would've at least got a couple more correct.

Arrow · Senior Member

Wingnut wrote:
Arrow, since you knew you only had a minute or two to go, why didn't you just fill in all C's or whatever, you would've at least got a couple more correct.

honestly I lost track of how many minutes I had. I took the 2011 exam and finished with 20 min to spare just like this one. And got a 69. I was confident about this one as I can I on the score. and honest to god. I didn't know there were 130 until I got to 100. Didn't read the front. but its my fault not to bubble it in. And dcas should had given more time. But it out oh my hands now

cop · Senior Member

Talking with another test taker he told me the top 30 incorrect by all test takers arrested getting tossed to make it fair is this possible I don't believe it also here is something I got

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/members-against-dcas

pdizzle · Newbie

what do you think?

Best-100

ML-79

Worst-70