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"Looks like they will finish the list in less than three years. Should have been a bigger list."
Don't think so. I figure the numbers are going to be about 15-30 / month which is about the norm. (first 3 classes of this year was exceptionally large because the job was already short big time and those 3 large classes filled the gap). 41 months to go on this Lt. List. I'm "Guessing" around 280-285 already promoted from the posts I read. (Give or take a few) so that leaves around 945 or so remaining from a list of 1228(?), divide the remaining by 41 months = 23/month They will probably finish the entire list within 4 years. Anyone with more accurate numbers, feel free to input and divide 41 months... (Note - I'm not on any list. Retired 25 years ago with 20) Good luck to all.
-- Edited by The South Bronx on Thursday 25th of July 2024 03:09:47 PM
Don't think so. I figure the numbers are going to be about 15-30 / month which is about the norm. (first 3 classes of this year was exceptionally large because the job was already short big time and those 3 large classes filled the gap). 41 months to go on this Lt. List. I'm "Guessing" around 280-285 already promoted from the posts I read. (Give or take a few) so that leaves around 945 or so remaining from a list of 1228(?), divide the remaining by 41 months = 23/month They will probably finish the entire list within 4 years. Anyone with more accurate numbers, feel free to input and divide 41 months... (Note - I'm not on any list. Retired 25 years ago with 20) Good luck to all.
Bruh,
25 years ago? You shouldnt post, youre antiquated.
It really depends on the numerous factors. How many LTs retiring in the near future & how many Captains will be made. The more openings the more promotions. The whole list will be made. Whether it takes 3, 3.5, or 4 years. The sooner the better for us because this Union sucks, and no raise in sight.
The list will take four (4) years on the nose. Mark my words.
They had the math done the day the list came out.
That is correct As of right now they are on pace to hit around 380-400 by January if that happens they could do 250 per year which has been the historical average and would finish the list in 4 years.
The list will take four (4) years on the nose. Mark my words.
They had the math done the day the list came out.
That is correct As of right now they are on pace to hit around 380-400 by January if that happens they could do 250 per year which has been the historical average and would finish the list in 4 years.
I agree with the posts above, I believe the job prepares itself for what number it needs to have available for promotion in between exams, I keep my fingers crossed that since there are a good amount of lieutenants with time on the overtime has helped many reach that number people chase to pull the pin. Does anyone have an idea of what percentage of the rank has that kind of time on. This would definitely make a difference in these historical promotion numbers.
1,738 LTs, of which 550 (31.6%) have 20+ years & 33 on terminal. 878 (50.5%) LTs are 15-19 years. So lets say 1/2 will hit 20 years in the next 3 years, thats about 440. 550+440=990 potential retirements in the next 3 years. Theres 941 (+passovers) ppl left on the list with 3.5 years to go.
-- Edited by No1isbetter on Saturday 27th of July 2024 11:59:31 AM
Plus you have over 80 Capt and above on terminal. There is also about 330 people on the captains list. That creates 330 more vacancies over the next 3 years
1,738 LTs, of which 550 (31.6%) have 20+ years & 33 on terminal. 878 (50.5%) LTs are 15-19 years. So lets say 1/2 will hit 20 years in the next 3 years, thats about 440. 550+440=990 potential retirements in the next 3 years. Theres 941 (+passovers) ppl left on the list with 3.5 years to go.
-- Edited by No1isbetter on Saturday 27th of July 2024 11:59:31 AM
Finally someone who understands the REAL numbers. We are in different times. Everyone keeps using the past as basis, that is simply wrong. There is a real probability this list doesnt even last 3 years. Some may say well why wasnt the list made bigger. My theory is they already curved the fuck out of it and made an approximate 50% pass rate out of it, thats bad enough. Do we really think going past that would look good ? I dont.
List finished by late 2026. Captains test early 2027, every one on this list makes it. No way in blue hell we go back to 250 per year with the amount of Lts who can run for the hills any second.
Like the guy also said above. We do realize the Captains list may very well be finished and there is still 300+ left on it right ? Thats minus 300 from the Lts headcount without even adding potential retirements.
This list is going to be destroyed
-- Edited by TenFour16 on Sunday 28th of July 2024 12:48:13 AM
-- Edited by TenFour16 on Sunday 28th of July 2024 12:49:09 AM
probably 304 as of a few days from now... I suspect they hit at least 400 by years end. That's almost 1/3 of the entire list. Granted the early vacancies pumped those numbers.. It will slow down slightly unless there is some unforeseen mass exodus again.
I suspect they hit 750 by EOY 2025.
1050 by EOY 2026.
1218 by summer 2027.
Then whoever remains from passovers, thereafter until list expiration.
Now I wasnt saying all 990 will retire but the possibility is there. Use the Capt promotions as a gap-fill for % of those who dont retire from that 990. I agree with that time line above.
-- Edited by No1isbetter on Sunday 28th of July 2024 10:35:42 PM
