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Post Info TOPIC: Official Lieutenant Prediction Thread
How big will the Lt’s List be? [113 vote(s)]

Less than 1000
16.8%
1000-1500
35.4%
1500-2000
31.0%
2000+
16.8%


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Official Lieutenant Prediction Thread


Any solid info if there is a curve?

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Captains and Sgts test were. No reason to believe they wont curve this one.

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10-4



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True. Im hearing tvb is starting first week of August. Can anyone confirm

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3testwonder wrote:

True. Im hearing tvb is starting first week of August. Can anyone confirm


 Is this information solid? 



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Taketheday wrote:

RookieScum posted this a few days ago

Vacancies as of 6/16/23

Sergeant 533 (3568 out of 4101)

Lieutenant 66 (1378 out of 1444)

Captains -17 (367 out of 350 with 22 on Terminal)

DI 36 (144 out of 180 with 13 on Terminal


 Do they consider DIs and above to be vacancies against Capts ? 



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Just as I said earlier, an Lt from the 2017 is getting promoted on Friday. There are still Passovers eligible for promotion because the list expiration was extended until 2024

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Take it for what its worth.just heard from an exec at promotions.the most factual latest rumor is .234 per wrong question

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It's the same curve that the recent Captain and Sergeant exam received. The LT list will almost certainly be getting that same curve. 61 is the new 70!

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Yea i had heard .231 but .234 could be what it is now so essentially for every wrong question you get that amount per question. Lol can go from a 61 to a 75.

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Taketheday wrote:

Yea i had heard .231 but .234 could be what it is now so essentially for every wrong question you get that amount per question. Lol can go from a 61 to a 75.


 This is ridiculous lol



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Taketheday wrote:

Yea i had heard .231 but .234 could be what it is now so essentially for every wrong question you get that amount per question. Lol can go from a 61 to a 75.


 Really good standard to have



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RachDawg wrote:
Taketheday wrote:

Yea i had heard .231 but .234 could be what it is now so essentially for every wrong question you get that amount per question. Lol can go from a 61 to a 75.


 Really good standard to have


I sure wont apologize for making Lieutenant under these standards



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Someone said the .231 is after you get any curve points. Any truth to this or is it from raw score?

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Correction the question is after throw outs not curb.

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The scaling (0.231) is after throwouts are applied.

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El Norte wrote:

Someone said the .231 is after you get any curve points. Any truth to this or is it from raw score?


 Im pretty sure its curve points then throwout if im not mistaken and if that gets you to a 70, then thats when Longevity/Fitness/Award Points kick in which is why someone could have a 62 raw lets say and after curve end up with an additional 8.7 points which would get them to a 70 and after that pick up 3 Throwouts and land at a 73 before any additional points Are added. Thats how some people could go from a 62 and end up with close to an 80, in curtain situations. Not everyone is gonna have Alot of Time in rank or any additional points for their score.



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Throwouts, double answers, etc. are added to the raw scores first. Then the scores is adjusted with scale they set forth.

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Then longevity, military, Fitness points are added IF the adjusted score reached a passing 70

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HeartsNminds is accurate. First is throw outs/ double answers. Then the curve. Then longevity/ medals/ etc



-- Edited by Bklynsouth3020 on Friday 28th of July 2023 11:55:41 PM

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To break this down, we can best look at it this way (assuming DCAS scaling is 0.231 per incorrect answer):

RAW score = score one gets immediately after finishing the exam.

ACTUAL score = addition of any picked up TVB throwouts, triple/double answers, etc. to the raw score.

ADJUSTED score = [ (100 - actual score) X 0.231 ] + Actual Score

FINAL ADJUSTED score = adjusted score + (seniority/military/fitness points IF 70 is reached). 

IF 70 isnt reached, then FINAL ADJUSTED is equal to the Adjusted score. 



-- Edited by HeartsNminds on Saturday 29th of July 2023 12:16:37 AM

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So how many throwouts are typical on past exams? And are throwout points only awarded if you had originally gotten the question wrong?

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Yes. If you already got the question correct, then youve already been awarded its point.  If you get the question wrong; you only get the point if the answer you chose is also recognized as a valid answer by the TVB.  That being said, if a question is thrown out that means any answer submitted (A, B; C, or D) will be counted (as long as you didnt leave the question blank). 



-- Edited by HeartsNminds on Saturday 29th of July 2023 02:57:04 AM

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If a question is deemed to be a Double Answer (I.e. both A and C are deemed correct choices), you will not be awarded a point if you chose B or D.

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Hopefully mid August list

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Stupid questionif you scored a 72 where would you be on the list if they make it to 1000

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Joe2020 wrote:

Stupid questionif you scored a 72 where would you be on the list if they make it to 1000


 No assumption, go on facts. Better question is when is the list dropping?  Youll have a better visual then . 



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Joe2020 wrote:

Stupid questionif you scored a 72 where would you be on the list if they make it to 1000


 impossible to know until list comes out, if you got a 72 you might be promoted way after someone who originally failed based on all additional stuff calculated. 



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ROUGH guesstimate? A 72 may likely wind up somewhere near 80 and be around list # 800. 



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Any solid intel on when list is dropping ? Did TVB start/finish?

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Completely not fair to get promoted after someone that actually failed the test.

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Joe2020 wrote:

Completely not fair to get promoted after someone that actually failed the test.


 Keep in mind seniority points as well. 



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Someone that failed should not leap frog someone that actually passed

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All depends, but for the most part I dont think many people will get leapfrogged as much as the SGT exam. Its a much smaller pool of people and this list will at most be 1400-1600.

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Unfortunately it happens on every exam. I got a unadjusted raw score of a 71 on the recent Captains  exam. A guy next to me got a 68 on the original date.  However, due to the extra points (military/jst/Time in rank), he ended being 80 names above me, which is significant on a small Captains list. Doesn't sound fair but it's the reality of the process.



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PD2FD wrote:

Unfortunately it happens on every exam. I got a unadjusted raw score of a 71 on the recent Captains  exam. A guy next to me got a 68 on the original date.  However, due to the extra points (military/jst/Time in rank), he ended being 80 names above me, which is significant on a small Captains list. Doesn't sound fair but it's the reality of the process.


 That is always a possibility with every exam and it may take longer for some people but if you pass with a raw score you will get promoted and your score can only go up. I would think getting an 80 after getting a raw 72, you are more than guaranteed to promoted



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Tunit wrote:

ROUGH guesstimate? A 72 may likely wind up somewhere near 80 and be around list # 800. 


 Not necessarily. If its a bottom heavy list with very few original passers who scored in 90s and 80s, a 72 could be a decent score. Keep in mind the lower bulk of the list are people who had failing raw score but passed due to curve. Therefore no-one will know until the list comes out. And if true, people were saying 250 original passers, i say if you pass with raw score you are in a great position. 



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Is it half a point per year in rank?

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Spanish mama wrote:
Tunit wrote:

ROUGH guesstimate? A 72 may likely wind up somewhere near 80 and be around list # 800. 


 Not necessarily. If its a bottom heavy list with very few original passers who scored in 90s and 80s, a 72 could be a decent score. Keep in mind the lower bulk of the list are people who had failing raw score but passed due to curve. Therefore no-one will know until the list comes out. And if true, people were saying 250 original passers, i say if you pass with raw score you are in a great position. 


 There is zero way to guesstimate, dont get this persons hopes up/tear them down 



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El Norte wrote:

Is it half a point per year in rank?


 Look at your notice of examination. Its broken down by dates



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yankeefanhatebsox wrote:
Spanish mama wrote:
Tunit wrote:

ROUGH guesstimate? A 72 may likely wind up somewhere near 80 and be around list # 800. 


 Not necessarily. If its a bottom heavy list with very few original passers who scored in 90s and 80s, a 72 could be a decent score. Keep in mind the lower bulk of the list are people who had failing raw score but passed due to curve. Therefore no-one will know until the list comes out. And if true, people were saying 250 original passers, i say if you pass with raw score you are in a great position. 


 There is zero way to guesstimate, dont get this persons hopes up/tear them down 


 Good point of reference is on the previous LT list an 80 ranged from list numbers 800-750 on a list of 1335 so i would assume an 80 on this list if its around 1400-1500 would be around the same ranging from 700s-800s or if you want to scale it for a bigger list then 800s-to low 900s meaning you would essentially be around the middle of the list which is alot better than being on the bottom end of the list. Thats more realistic and if they historically promote around 180-250 per year then your looking at a 3-4 year wait for a promotion 



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Has anyone ever hear back from whoever FOILED the # of original passers ? Cant remember who sent the request through.

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Taketheday wrote:
yankeefanhatebsox wrote:
Spanish mama wrote:
Tunit wrote:

ROUGH guesstimate? A 72 may likely wind up somewhere near 80 and be around list # 800. 


 Not necessarily. If its a bottom heavy list with very few original passers who scored in 90s and 80s, a 72 could be a decent score. Keep in mind the lower bulk of the list are people who had failing raw score but passed due to curve. Therefore no-one will know until the list comes out. And if true, people were saying 250 original passers, i say if you pass with raw score you are in a great position. 


 There is zero way to guesstimate, dont get this persons hopes up/tear them down 


 Good point of reference is on the previous LT list an 80 ranged from list numbers 800-750 on a list of 1335 so i would assume an 80 on this list if its around 1400-1500 would be around the same ranging from 700s-800s or if you want to scale it for a bigger list then 800s-to low 900s meaning you would essentially be around the middle of the list which is alot better than being on the bottom end of the list. Thats more realistic and if they historically promote around 180-250 per year then your looking at a 3-4 year wait for a promotion 


 But that test an 80 was more low middle raw score..and they didnt have a ton of throw outs 

 

an 80 on this test raw prob puts you in top 100-125 based on scores we have heard so far



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I sent another foil request last month with no response.  Im still hearing mid August though



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Allout wrote:

I sent another foil request last month with no response.  Im still hearing mid August though


 Did TVB start or finish ?



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Caralho wrote:
Allout wrote:

I sent another foil request last month with no response.  Im still hearing mid August though


 Did TVB start or finish ?


 This TVB shit must be wrapping up at this point. Didnt Dcas request Lts about 2 months ago for the TVB process. Im sure it doesnt take more then a month to complete TVB. 



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There has to be some sort of news by now. At the VERY LEAST the amount of original passers on a FOIL request. Is DCAS really withholding information this much nowadays ?

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I sent FOIL request asking if TVB even started, weeks ago and still no response.

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There is zero reason to think this is coming out this month. No one even knows if tvb is even done yet and they promoted someone from the last list just a few days ago. Gonna be a bit.

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Nyc5000 wrote:

There is zero reason to think this is coming out this month. No one even knows if tvb is even done yet and they promoted someone from the last list just a few days ago. Gonna be a bit.


 What makes you say that? One has nothing to do with the other and just Because no one knows/does not want to say that the tvb is going on does not mean its not going on.



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yankeefanhatebsox wrote:
Nyc5000 wrote:

There is zero reason to think this is coming out this month. No one even knows if tvb is even done yet and they promoted someone from the last list just a few days ago. Gonna be a bit.


 What makes you say that? One has nothing to do with the other and just Because no one knows/does not want to say that the tvb is going on does not mean its not going on.


 Totally agree with yankeefanhatebsox. 



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