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Post Info TOPIC: Crunching the numbers


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Crunching the numbers


As of today and taking the numbers straight from this forum:

499 +/- left on list 

82 +/- held up

29 +/- resign/retire/(3/4)/RIP

technically 470 +/- left on list 

 

If promotions don't continue until September that will leave 5 months till expiration of the list. With the typical 1 promotion a month means a range of 94 +/- to 110 +/- a BMOC until the list dies. 

granted the Dept can throw in another 200+ BMOC at the end of May and this all changes, but if not - 94+ a month for 5 straight months seems like a lot and wishful thinking. Nothing like bringing this list to the wire. 

 

 



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Don't forget to throw vacancies into this

325 current vacancies and
98 sgt on terminal leave as of this post

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Ive gone from hopeful they will finish to I just dont know. If promos dont start up again until September I just dont see the City caring enough to finish up in 4 months without some lawsuit forcing them to

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The department has the capability of finishing the list in 3 months time as weve seen with the last class being 220. The new fiscal year starts in July and my guess is that is another reason why theyre holding off. Historically when a list is coming to an end they usually pump out classes to exhaust it. It would leave very little room for delays but its quite possible for them too finish the list once September comes around.

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Zeefinestmsg wrote:

The department has the capability of finishing the list in 3 months time as weve seen with the last class being 220. The new fiscal year starts in July and my guess is that is another reason why theyre holding off. Historically when a list is coming to an end they usually pump out classes to exhaust it. It would leave very little room for delays but its quite possible for them too finish the list once September comes around.


 Im not saying they cant do it I just think they don't want to

Im just saying the Department wants promos but City Hall keeps shooting it down I just cant see the City doing a 180 and suddenly promoting 470 cops three months in a row. I hope they do but honestly it just seems like the new Regime doesn't care about promos for right now and you have to remember September is West India Parade and the UN conferences so more likely you would not get promos until October meaning they would have to promote 150+ three months in a row or 2 huge classes of 230 back to back I just dont see them doing that unless they are forced to by something. Not trying to be negative but the direction the city is going with this list doesn't look good. If they do another class before September then I would think differently.



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Omg. Theyre not pushing promos to Sept. Ppl need to just get off this message board. No one in here works at City Hall.

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At the end of the day its the city that suffers when we are short staffed. You keep over working youre current staff and they will get minimum work done. It is what it is at this point.

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I think the most helpful information to crunch the numbers (if anyone has it) would be historical vacancy numbers.

What is the highest number of Sgt vacancies the job has ever had and how much did they promote when they reached that point?

Another useful number would be the average number of Sgt vacancies the job typical has?


For example, right now they have around 325 vacant with around 70 on terminal. Is this the highest or has there been a higher number in the past? That can be telling for the jobs limit on when they would push to promote. Then look at the average number of vacancies they typically have (I know it fluctuates, but maybe there is a consistent number they always get to). So if 500 is the limit, and 100 is low average, then you can expect around 400 promotions over several class when they hit 500, or at the very least expect a small class at 500.


Obviously its all still speculation though.



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sector7 wrote:

I think the most helpful information to crunch the numbers (if anyone has it) would be historical vacancy numbers.

What is the highest number of Sgt vacancies the job has ever had and how much did they promote when they reached that point?

Another useful number would be the average number of Sgt vacancies the job typical has?


For example, right now they have around 325 vacant with around 70 on terminal. Is this the highest or has there been a higher number in the past? That can be telling for the jobs limit on when they would push to promote. Then look at the average number of vacancies they typically have (I know it fluctuates, but maybe there is a consistent number they always get to). So if 500 is the limit, and 100 is low average, then you can expect around 400 promotions over several class when they hit 500, or at the very least expect a small class at 500.


Obviously its all still speculation though.


 Issue is we are dealing with Adams and his administration who are not a speculative type of guys.



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Guys you are going to drive yourselves crazy. Theres no rhyme or reason to this nonsense smh. We just gotta wait it out.

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All of you need to chill out. Your time will come. I just found out theres a guy in my command who scored high 80s but declined promotion.

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I feel like these posts are created by guys who want people to bug out. The blackcloud already notified his family that hes not getting promoted. Everyone needs to just check here for the heavy hitters. Actually, just read what truthseeker or taketheday post

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EyeMissBernard wrote:

I feel like these posts are created by guys who want people to bug out. The blackcloud already notified his family that hes not getting promoted. Everyone needs to just check here for the heavy hitters. Actually, just read what truthseeker or taketheday post


 The world is ending....

.....

..

...

..

.....

I still think this whole list gets made. With the new sgt test now not until August a new list theoretically won't be created until February 2023 or later. And that's if they create the list in 6 months flat. 



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Lol 



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60 getting promoted on Friday. A bunch of holdovers are getting made.. up to list # 2247

435 left
79 holdovers
22 resigned/retired/RIP

congrats to those getting made

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still waiting on final list of holdovers and what not, but as most if not all of you already know - 60 sergeants going in Friday afternoon... I believe they are at list #2319 now (who I've heard has resigned/retired) So we're starting up at #2320 for July or whenever the next promo is.

More updates to follow.

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363 +/- left on list
+ 88 +/- held up
- 19 - resign/retire/(3/4)/RIP
technically 432 +/- left on list


6 full eligible months left (Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan 24/2023)
3 classes of 144
4 classes of 108
5 classes of 86
6 classes of 72

432 doesnt take into account anyone who fails to get the Green Light from CARB, gets jammed up along the way, passes up promotion, retires, or LOD 3/4.


So lets say final number is 400.

3 classes of 133
4 classes of 100
5 classes of 80
6 classes of 66

 

Sept - 2/4 years

Oct - 1/4 years

Nov - 3/4 years

Dec - 3/4 years

Jan - 2/5 years

 



-- Edited by No1isbetter on Thursday 23rd of June 2022 09:14:05 PM



-- Edited by No1isbetter on Friday 24th of June 2022 09:45:37 PM

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Why are you obsessed with these numbers let it go brother

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Let me get this straight VetteCop does it, he gets a thank you, I update it, I get why are you so obsessed. But you know what, I expected a dumb fkn question like this, so besides the fact Im numbers person in general, I mean that in a literal term, budgeting, analytics, etc etc, Im still invested because these are the people who follow, who will eventually make MY work load & others lighter. So youre welcome, because as YOU & others continue to wait, now you have an idea of the possibilities of whats to come, especially yours SOS. We should worry about the health & well being of the 73pct Officer rather than what Im doing.

 



-- Edited by No1isbetter on Thursday 23rd of June 2022 10:15:02 PM

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@No1isbetter is the most sensitive dude I've seen on this forum. Lol relax bro, not everything is a personal attack against you.

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Im wasting my time. 



-- Edited by No1isbetter on Thursday 23rd of June 2022 10:19:05 PM

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Thank you for the #s @No1isbetter



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Exactly 



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No1isbetter wrote:

363 +/- left on list
+ 82 +/- held up (5 more after this class)
- 19 - resign/retire/(3/4)/RIP
technically 426 +/- left on list


6 full eligible months left (Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan 24/2023)
3 classes of 142
4 classes of 106
5 classes of 85
6 classes of 71

426 doesnt take into account anyone who fails to get the Green Light from CARB, gets jammed up along the way, passes up promotion, retires, or LOD 3/4.

So lets say final number is 400.

3 classes of 133
4 classes of 100
5 classes of 80
6 classes of 66

 

Sept - 2/4 years

Oct - 1/4 years

Nov - 3/4 years

Dec - 3/4 years

Jan - 2/5 years

 



-- Edited by No1isbetter on Thursday 23rd of June 2022 09:14:05 PM


 appreciate this.. explain to me what this is about:

 

Sept - 2/4 years

Oct - 1/4 years

Nov - 3/4 years

Dec - 3/4 years

Jan - 2/5 years

 

 

thx



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I believe its how often the job has promoted in each month since the start of the list.

Like in 4 years there was 2 Sept classes, 1 October class etc

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Ah got it. Thanks

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Thank you for the update @ No1isbetter

THE FOLLOWING IS JUST MY OPINION, I HAVE NO SOURCE.

My prediction is they will finish the list at a rate of 60ish per month. They may skip a month or two, and make up for it with doubling the class after the skipped month. For example; if they skip doing 60 in August, then they will do 120 in September. There are two reasons I believe they will finish the list. One is because the have 300+ vacancies left, not including those on terminal leave right now. Two there will likely be a gap of several months between when our list expires and the new list gets established.

Hopefully in July someone can provide updated vacancies. I also want to note, these are just my predictions. No one, not even the Mayor or PC, can tell you with absolutely certainty whether or not the whole list will get promoted. There are just too many variables.



-- Edited by sector7 on Friday 24th of June 2022 01:39:35 AM

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With approximately 440 people left to go on this list including holds - I would have to say they will exhaust the entire list. Too many vacancies, and the HUGE 2002 classes are going to start hitting the pension section at much higher rates, especially in this climate.

Short and sweet, they need sergeant's and they're going to need way more than 440.

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VetteCop wrote:

With approximately 440 people left to go on this list including holds - I would have to say they will exhaust the entire list. Too many vacancies, and the HUGE 2002 classes are going to start hitting the pension section at much higher rates, especially in this climate.

Short and sweet, they need sergeant's and they're going to need way more than 440.


 Dont forget every time they promote LTs they also add more vacancies to the current sgt vacancies.



-- Edited by Futureauxiliary on Friday 24th of June 2022 01:34:07 AM

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Futureauxiliary wrote:
VetteCop wrote:

With approximately 440 people left to go on this list including holds - I would have to say they will exhaust the entire list. Too many vacancies, and the HUGE 2002 classes are going to start hitting the pension section at much higher rates, especially in this climate.

Short and sweet, they need sergeant's and they're going to need way more than 440.


 Dont forget every time they promote LTs they also add more vacancies to the current sgt vacancies.



-- Edited by Futureauxiliary on Friday 24th of June 2022 01:34:07 AM


 drop in the bucket... don't forget - a LT can do a SGT job, and right now - they are



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Guys dont say that No1 says the list may get cut and expire

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I actually never said that. I said, in the event that it was a possibility, people should study hard for the Sgt exam & take it, in the event it does, youll be on a new list & in the event it doesnt, youll have fresh material for the Lieutenant exam come January/March. I mean I know reading is fundamental but clearly not for all. That being said, Im in good hands where Im going & so will my cops. Good luck bud, I hope you make it champ.



-- Edited by No1isbetter on Friday 24th of June 2022 10:41:19 PM

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If you were smart and u wanted to cover every possibility, you should quickly realize that the list has as much chance to be cut then it has to be exhausted. The honest answer if u want it has to do with ppl way above us. Im not going to lie I have no idea who makes the call on promotions in this administration. It changes w every administration. Whether its adams or banks or whoever, they could have the attitude of I think everyone should be promoted or screw 2600 getting promoted I want ppl who study harder. Or they can feel that way but still need to promote on the needs. The point is no post or poster will change what will occur in 6 months. No1 simply just points out a possibility that no one likes to think about but your foolish not to consider when planning ur career

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i just think based on vacancies the dept would put themselves in a big bind not exhausting this list. if you have 400 willing and able cops why would you just dump that and wait in upwards of a year or more for a new list...?

just doesn't make sense, but you're right, anything can happen.

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With the new test being on a computer will it still be 6 months before the score comes out? Then have people protest? When will they be able to start taking from that new list?

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I thought with the test being computerized we are going to know our score right there and then

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You will know your score right there. Review process still takes place. Only test given on computer nypd wise was captains. November was the test. First promo was end of august next year. They might have had an old list left not sure. So figure atleast 6 months. So you could see a promo february or March. Not long after completing this list. Will it be exhausted or cut? No one knows but Id bet on exhausted if I had to.

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Truthseeker wrote:

You will know your score right there. Review process still takes place. Only test given on computer nypd wise was captains. November was the test. First promo was end of august next year. They might have had an old list left not sure. So figure atleast 6 months. So you could see a promo february or March. Not long after completing this list. Will it be exhausted or cut? No one knows but Id bet on exhausted if I had to.


 When you say cut. The dept hasnt cut a list since implementing a 70% pass in 2006. If people on the list dont make promo thats not the same as cutting a list.  So yeah I would say exhausted which simply means either fully finished or until expiration date  



-- Edited by Semp1 on Saturday 25th of June 2022 07:31:20 PM

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List will be exhausted and no1 Im glad ur gonna be ok I hope ur gonna be ok cause I support my fellow brothers and sisters in blue

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If we're saying expired is the same as exhaustion. Then yeah definitely the list will be exhausted.

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Thank you @truthseeker for acknowledging your word has always been gold in this forum. For your sake & mental well-being SOS I hope it does get exhausted, Im glad that ur glad, working on my speech right now, really wanna motivate my guys, ya know.

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July promos will be a good indicator what will happen with this list although in my opinion everyone will get made from this list.

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They could clear half the remaining list next class. Who knows

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My opinion is no more important then anyones. I do have some wisdom w this job. Dont ever trust the job to do whats right by you. It will do whats right for the job, if it so happens to help you along the way then great. So you need to plan accordingly and be ready to pivot when things dont go as planned. Id be looking for a gig to ride my career out or go detective if possible. But thats me

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No1 I have nothing but love for you my brother or sister all I was saying is to leave the negative energy out of this group.and I hope everyone gets made ..Im already a supervisor and I hope everyone gets made

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50 more going in. Finest dropped late last night. Congrats.

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looking like about 302 names left... 91 hold ups (so about 393 +/- total left) and about 12 who have left the department in one way or another.

August
September
October
November
December
January

six months left for promotion of this list... puts you at about 50 a class to exhaust the list... Once again, I can't really imagine them letting the list expire without exhaustion with such a low amount of eligible left, and the fact that the vacancies are so high. Fingers crossed for everyone left!

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Well all the hold up get passed eventually

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I'm sure some of the hold ups from early on are probably retired, resigned, or 3/4 already. Others are probably way too jammed up to ever get promoted. Some will squeak through after CARB or whatever.

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Just to update this thread

There are 274 left on the list
There are 11 resignations, retirements, etc.
There are 84 passovers

There are probably around Sgt 441 vacancies (unconfirmed, based upon comparing vacancies posted 6/4/22 to today)

There have been 5 classes so far this year.

There are 5 months left until the list expires

5 classes of approximately 60 would finish the list, or 3 classes of approximately 100, or even 2 classes of approximately 150.

Good luck everyone. Lets hope for a big September class.



-- Edited by sector7 on Sunday 21st of August 2022 11:02:46 AM

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