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Ive gone from hopeful they will finish to I just dont know. If promos dont start up again until September I just dont see the City caring enough to finish up in 4 months without some lawsuit forcing them to

Zeefinestmsg wrote:

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The department has the capability of finishing the list in 3 months time as weve seen with the last class being 220. The new fiscal year starts in July and my guess is that is another reason why theyre holding off. Historically when a list is coming to an end they usually pump out classes to exhaust it. It would leave very little room for delays but its quite possible for them too finish the list once September comes around.

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 Im not saying they cant do it I just think they don't want to

Im just saying the Department wants promos but City Hall keeps shooting it down I just cant see the City doing a 180 and suddenly promoting 470 cops three months in a row. I hope they do but honestly it just seems like the new Regime doesn't care about promos for right now and you have to remember September is West India Parade and the UN conferences so more likely you would not get promos until October meaning they would have to promote 150+ three months in a row or 2 huge classes of 230 back to back I just dont see them doing that unless they are forced to by something. Not trying to be negative but the direction the city is going with this list doesn't look good. If they do another class before September then I would think differently.

At the end of the day its the city that suffers when we are short staffed. You keep over working youre current staff and they will get minimum work done. It is what it is at this point.

sector7 wrote:

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I think the most helpful information to crunch the numbers (if anyone has it) would be historical vacancy numbers.

What is the highest number of Sgt vacancies the job has ever had and how much did they promote when they reached that point?

Another useful number would be the average number of Sgt vacancies the job typical has?

For example, right now they have around 325 vacant with around 70 on terminal. Is this the highest or has there been a higher number in the past? That can be telling for the jobs limit on when they would push to promote. Then look at the average number of vacancies they typically have (I know it fluctuates, but maybe there is a consistent number they always get to). So if 500 is the limit, and 100 is low average, then you can expect around 400 promotions over several class when they hit 500, or at the very least expect a small class at 500.

Obviously its all still speculation though.

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 Issue is we are dealing with Adams and his administration who are not a speculative type of guys.

All of you need to chill out. Your time will come. I just found out theres a guy in my command who scored high 80s but declined promotion.

EyeMissBernard wrote:

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I feel like these posts are created by guys who want people to bug out. The blackcloud already notified his family that hes not getting promoted. Everyone needs to just check here for the heavy hitters. Actually, just read what truthseeker or taketheday post

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 The world is ending....

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I still think this whole list gets made. With the new sgt test now not until August a new list theoretically won't be created until February 2023 or later. And that's if they create the list in 6 months flat. 

60 getting promoted on Friday. A bunch of holdovers are getting made.. up to list # 2247

435 left
79 holdovers
22 resigned/retired/RIP

congrats to those getting made

363 +/- left on list
+ 88 +/- held up
- 19 - resign/retire/(3/4)/RIP
technically 432 +/- left on list


6 full eligible months left (Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan 24/2023)
3 classes of 144
4 classes of 108
5 classes of 86
6 classes of 72

432 doesnt take into account anyone who fails to get the Green Light from CARB, gets jammed up along the way, passes up promotion, retires, or LOD 3/4.

So lets say final number is 400.

3 classes of 133
4 classes of 100
5 classes of 80
6 classes of 66

 

Sept - 2/4 years

Oct - 1/4 years

Nov - 3/4 years

Dec - 3/4 years

Jan - 2/5 years

 

-- Edited by No1isbetter on Thursday 23rd of June 2022 09:14:05 PM

-- Edited by No1isbetter on Friday 24th of June 2022 09:45:37 PM

Let me get this straight VetteCop does it, he gets a thank you, I update it, I get why are you so obsessed. But you know what, I expected a dumb fkn question like this, so besides the fact Im numbers person in general, I mean that in a literal term, budgeting, analytics, etc etc, Im still invested because these are the people who follow, who will eventually make MY work load & others lighter. So youre welcome, because as YOU & others continue to wait, now you have an idea of the possibilities of whats to come, especially yours SOS. We should worry about the health & well being of the 73pct Officer rather than what Im doing.

 

-- Edited by No1isbetter on Thursday 23rd of June 2022 10:15:02 PM

Im wasting my time. 

-- Edited by No1isbetter on Thursday 23rd of June 2022 10:19:05 PM

Exactly 

I believe its how often the job has promoted in each month since the start of the list.

Like in 4 years there was 2 Sept classes, 1 October class etc

Thank you for the update @ No1isbetter

THE FOLLOWING IS JUST MY OPINION, I HAVE NO SOURCE.

My prediction is they will finish the list at a rate of 60ish per month. They may skip a month or two, and make up for it with doubling the class after the skipped month. For example; if they skip doing 60 in August, then they will do 120 in September. There are two reasons I believe they will finish the list. One is because the have 300+ vacancies left, not including those on terminal leave right now. Two there will likely be a gap of several months between when our list expires and the new list gets established.

Hopefully in July someone can provide updated vacancies. I also want to note, these are just my predictions. No one, not even the Mayor or PC, can tell you with absolutely certainty whether or not the whole list will get promoted. There are just too many variables.

-- Edited by sector7 on Friday 24th of June 2022 01:39:35 AM

VetteCop wrote:

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With approximately 440 people left to go on this list including holds - I would have to say they will exhaust the entire list. Too many vacancies, and the HUGE 2002 classes are going to start hitting the pension section at much higher rates, especially in this climate.

Short and sweet, they need sergeant's and they're going to need way more than 440.

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 Dont forget every time they promote LTs they also add more vacancies to the current sgt vacancies.

-- Edited by Futureauxiliary on Friday 24th of June 2022 01:34:07 AM

Guys dont say that No1 says the list may get cut and expire

If you were smart and u wanted to cover every possibility, you should quickly realize that the list has as much chance to be cut then it has to be exhausted. The honest answer if u want it has to do with ppl way above us. Im not going to lie I have no idea who makes the call on promotions in this administration. It changes w every administration. Whether its adams or banks or whoever, they could have the attitude of I think everyone should be promoted or screw 2600 getting promoted I want ppl who study harder. Or they can feel that way but still need to promote on the needs. The point is no post or poster will change what will occur in 6 months. No1 simply just points out a possibility that no one likes to think about but your foolish not to consider when planning ur career

With the new test being on a computer will it still be 6 months before the score comes out? Then have people protest? When will they be able to start taking from that new list?

You will know your score right there. Review process still takes place. Only test given on computer nypd wise was captains. November was the test. First promo was end of august next year. They might have had an old list left not sure. So figure atleast 6 months. So you could see a promo february or March. Not long after completing this list. Will it be exhausted or cut? No one knows but Id bet on exhausted if I had to.

List will be exhausted and no1 Im glad ur gonna be ok I hope ur gonna be ok cause I support my fellow brothers and sisters in blue

Thank you @truthseeker for acknowledging your word has always been gold in this forum. For your sake & mental well-being SOS I hope it does get exhausted, Im glad that ur glad, working on my speech right now, really wanna motivate my guys, ya know.

They could clear half the remaining list next class. Who knows

No1 I have nothing but love for you my brother or sister all I was saying is to leave the negative energy out of this group.and I hope everyone gets made ..Im already a supervisor and I hope everyone gets made

looking like about 302 names left... 91 hold ups (so about 393 +/- total left) and about 12 who have left the department in one way or another.

August
September
October
November
December
January

six months left for promotion of this list... puts you at about 50 a class to exhaust the list... Once again, I can't really imagine them letting the list expire without exhaustion with such a low amount of eligible left, and the fact that the vacancies are so high. Fingers crossed for everyone left!

I'm sure some of the hold ups from early on are probably retired, resigned, or 3/4 already. Others are probably way too jammed up to ever get promoted. Some will squeak through after CARB or whatever.