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I'm hearing 300 actually sat for the exam, out of 400 that registered. Should be interesting to see how large this list is. In my classroom, after about the 4th hour 50% of the room was empty. I can't see how they were able to finish in that short amount time.

Quick question. How many answer keys did it take to get such an accurate estimated score on the 2013 Captain Exam, and how did the spreadsheet work out for the 2013 Captain Exam.

Thanks again with the spreadsheet, getting an estimated score definitely helps with the post exam anxiety

Quick question. How many answer keys did it take to get such an accurate estimated score on the 2013 Captain Exam, and how did the spreadsheet work out for the 2013 Captain Exam.

Thanks again with the spreadsheet, getting an estimated score definitely helps with the post exam anxiety

I had about 50 keys by the end of my updates for the 2013 test. The spreadsheet was pretty accurate for me. It told me I had a 63 and I ended up with a 62.

I'm sure the more answer keys the better, but how you can get an estimated score with those extra unknown 20 questions is still puzzling to me, Gamblor is a wiz for coming up with this...Im hearing Gamblors 2 for 2 (2013 Sgt/2013 Capt)

quick question for you Gamblor, I understand you are using laws of averages for the best/most likely/worst scores, but what is the exact percentage value for getting that score. In other words if my best is a 73, what is the probability in percentage that I will get that score in relation to the most likely and so forth. I hope I am making sense with my question

It appears that he's using a Normal (bell curve) distribution. The question is what is the Standard Deviation. That would give you an idea of the margin of error, without getting into complex statistical explanations.

It appears that he's using a Normal (bell curve) distribution. The question is what is the Standard Deviation. That would give you an idea of the margin of error, without getting into complex statistical explanations.

It is a bell curve distribution based on the probability of any particular wrong answer being a research question. I only calculate the most likely scenario, which is easy since 1 in 6 questions will be research. If you want to get into the probability of skewing away from the mean, then you have to factor in the chances of more or less than the average being research questions. For example, if you have 20 wrong answers out of 120, then the average person would have 3.3333 of those as research questions (rounded to 3), giving them a score of 83 with only 17 actually wrong answers (exclusive of other factors like potential doubles). Someone better than me can do the math on the odds of deviating from the norm.

Math was never my strong subject but it sounds good to me. Do you guys think we have enough answer keys to make this accurate, If they say around 300+ sat for the exam. 3 more weeks we shall see.