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bngeek wrote:

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risingstarpromotion.activeboard.com/t56986498/historical-promtional-info/

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Thanks to the info from that link, here are some more figures to mull over:

2014 YTD - 175 total, rate of 35 per calendar month, avg class size of 44 (4 classes total)

2013 - 405 total, rate of 34 per calendar month, avg class size of 58 (7 classes total)

2012 - 510 total, rate of 43 per calendar month, avg class size of 57 (9 classes total)

2011 - 465 total, rate of 39 per calendar month, avg class size of 66 (7 classes total)

The class size isn't so important when you're trying to figure out how long until you get promoted. It's the rate that matters. So what do these numbers tell us?

First, that at minimum the department promotes at the rate of 34 per calendar month. We are currently at 1106 and it is May. By December, another 7 months will have gone by, and at the rate it's going, that equates to another 238 names, bringing the list to 1344, give or take. And that is worst case scenario.

Second, that the average class size right now for 2014 YTD is only 44. Compare that to the previous years and you can see a big difference. What this means is that we've had small classes right now and therefore:

1) we are due for some BIG classes coming up AND a few more down months (2-4 more down months)
OR
2) we will have small classes, but very FEW down months.

 

This is all assuming that the promotion rate doesn't drop off of course.

-- Edited by bngeek on Sunday 18th of May 2014 03:02:59 AM

Lol so much pointless effort on trying to predict the future sure is funny. It's crazy what impatience does to people.  

Uhm that took all of five minutes to do, maybe ten, including the time it took to type the post... people shouldn't assume that everyone works at the same pace.

But I agree, there isn't a pattern, but it's still nice to see I'd like to think.

-- Edited by bngeek on Sunday 18th of May 2014 05:28:12 PM

Jman wrote:

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If you guys spent as much time studying as you do whining on rising star and looking at meaningless patterns,
You would've been promoted off this list a year ago.

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 Lmfao your right 

ChargesandSpecs wrote:

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It's not a pattern. It's using stats to come to ones own conclusion. Like science using a hypothesis. As ridiculou. We are as it may seem on a forum foit has  cops. But then again one could argue that the depahhhhtment is even more ridiculous than this forum, no?

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 well said. No one is saying there is a pattern but this type of math is used for all kinds of things to determine probability. Nothing wrong with estimating especially when it deals with the pace of your career. 

I hope your right. I should be in it. Thanks for the info. Been checking this site 5 times a day for updates!

queensfinest wrote:

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Well My friends there WILL be a class next month i dont know how many.

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 I actually heard the same thing.   Unknown number though.  Who knows in the end. LoL. 

53 for June. As per Sgt. Keeney

Next Friday.

When is the graduation ?

So when u think the finest will come down next week ?

53 puts me in the June class

Just heard the same

That's the wild card. If they put in a class the same day all the promotions are (June 2nd), the finest would come down a week from today on the 28th. But know one knows. They could realistically take a week off and start on the 9th, and promote people on July 3rd, and some people might be working their first day on the 4th at their new commands, as they tend to do around holiday promotions. If that's the case then the finest would come down on June 4th. Time will tell!

I'm gonna guess that the bmoc report date will be June 2. Promotions should not affect it. Although bmoc had a week off between promotions with the current class.

Confirmed 53 but the start date is still up in the air. 2nd or 9th

Some of us have never given bad info. If you look back 2 years I was 100% accurate with the throw outs

If you're told the info came from Sgt Keeney, there is nothing to doubt about.

53 sgts to BMOC on June 2 

Thank you Brat

Come on July then!

twntynout wrote:

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Brat, did you hear LT's as well?

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 LTs get promoted up front on June 2nd so obviously their report date is the 3rd to BMOC. 

Thnk u bluecollar

Now the next big question if the class would be going in June 2 , when will the Finest be coming down ? Im guessing Wed Thur ?