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So far, 444 people have been promoted (give or take) in 10 months. (May, June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb). Average is 45 promotions a month. At this rate, it will take 27 more months for the list to be exhausted. Obviously, past behavior is no prediction of future activity, but it's a rough guideline.
I think your guideline is a good idea but maybe you should start from list # 518 and the month of March just so you don't lose anybody because, your guideline is a little hard to follow.
I redid the posts I had on the other thread and condensed and updated them.
Here is what we know thus far:
339 on the 2007 list 671 on the 2008 list 783 on the 2009 list and 444 promoted on the 2011 list thus far. Giving a total of roughly 2237 promoted (you have to figure some were not promoted for whatever reason ie jam up, already a sgt, but the number shouldn't be too far off)
From what I read the first class off the '07 list was 01/01/08. Jan 2008 to now is 61 months... Which averages to about 37 (2237/61=36.67) a month, for all available data. List of 1663 people / 37 = 45 months.
So even considering the years when the lists moved slow, this entire list should get promoted, according to the historical mathematical precedent.
Using that math and checking it against the current list...
Recall that the last list was exhausted in March of last year, giving us 11 new months. 11x37=407 meaning the pevious tests history would predict there were 407 people made off this list thus far. Actual people made: 444 (according to you guys, I kinda stopped paying attention). Statistical error of 37 or about 8 percent. Given the average about 360 additional potential sergeants should get made before the end of the year.
Good job ohnoes, you are spot on with the numbers and I would agree with you IF the list does last say 45-48 months, but with an exam already coming in October, I am having doubts whether or not the the list will stay active for that long.
Lets say they expedite the Oct 2013 list to a quick 6 months for list establishment, that means at the fastest its out by April 2014 (6 months) which would also mean IF that happens, the list would die after only 24 months after establishment? Lets say they wait a year? Then its 30 months? 45-48 months which is what it may take if this rate continues means they would have to hold up the October 2013 list for nearly 2 years before establishing a list? Could happen, but I doubt it.
Looks like a few hundred people will likely die on the current list unless they hold the new list for about 2 years...
I'm not going to lie, I actually like math and statistics.
PGIMB I agree I'm not sure the list will hold out 45 months, I had done this math originally for myself to attempt to predict when I would get promoted, it was pretty close. I personally have no opinion if whether the whole list will get made or not.
Anyone can pm me and I'll apply the math to them or explain it more concisely.
their planning on making this new sgt exam (Oct 2013) effective in april of 2014. thats what i got from 1pp as of friday. lets hope they keep flying thru this list
