It's not too late! Order your 2023 Lieutenant Exam "Just the Questions" for only $349 Visit www.RisingStarPromotion.com to order over 1400 questions specifically designed for maximum retention of the Patrol Guide--plus full-length exams!

Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: Promotion Rates


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 69
Date:
Promotion Rates


518 people haven't been promoted yet



-- Edited by ontheedge on Thursday 7th of February 2013 09:48:12 PM

__________________


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 69
Date:

..



-- Edited by ontheedge on Thursday 7th of February 2013 09:49:12 PM

__________________


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 69
Date:

So far, 444 people have been promoted (give or take) in 10 months. (May, June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb).  Average is 45 promotions a month. At this rate, it will take 27 more months for the list to be exhausted. Obviously, past behavior is no prediction of future activity, but it's a rough guideline.

 

May-120
Jun-1240
Jul-1280
Aug-12120
Sep-12160
Oct-12200
Nov-12240
Dec-12280
Jan-13320
Feb-13360
Mar-13400
Apr-13440
May-13480
Jun-13520
Jul-13560
Aug-13600
Sep-13640
Oct-13680
Nov-13720
Dec-13760
Jan-14800
Feb-14840
Mar-14880
Apr-14920
May-14960
Jun-141000
Jul-141040
Aug-141080
Sep-141120
Oct-141160
Nov-141200
Dec-141240
Jan-151280
Feb-151320
Mar-151360
Apr-151400
May-151440
Jun-151480
Jul-151520
Aug-151560
Sep-151600
Oct-151640
Nov-151680


__________________


Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 7
Date:

I think your guideline is a good idea but maybe you should start from list # 518 and the month of March just so you don't lose anybody because, your guideline is a little hard to follow.

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 198
Date:

Didn't I do something remarkably similiar to this, except more thorough and correct?



-- Edited by ohnoes on Friday 8th of February 2013 06:08:00 AM

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 342
Date:

The only problem with making a list like this is the passover rate that needs/is factored also.

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 345
Date:

So far 444 people have been promoted but for some reason your chart says the list won't reach 440 until April. 2013......

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 380
Date:

I really don't understand this chart. 



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 403
Date:

Not Correct.



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 380
Date:

Yes you did, I think you should do it again and show this guy how its done. 



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 342
Date:

Where is the one you posted?

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 202
Date:

On May 29, 75 people were promoted. Where do you get 40 for June?

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 107
Date:

He averaged it out. 40 a month.

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 198
Date:


I redid the posts I had on the other thread and condensed and updated them.

Here is what we know thus far:

339 on the 2007 list
671 on the 2008 list
783 on the 2009 list
and 444 promoted on the 2011 list thus far.
Giving a total of roughly 2237 promoted (you have to figure some were not promoted for whatever reason ie jam up, already a sgt, but the number shouldn't be too far off)

From what I read the first class off the '07 list was 01/01/08.
Jan 2008 to now is 61 months...
Which averages to about 37 (2237/61=36.67) a month, for all available data.
List of 1663 people / 37 = 45 months.

So even considering the years when the lists moved slow, this entire list should get promoted, according to the historical mathematical precedent.

Using that math and checking it against the current list...

Recall that the last list was exhausted in March of last year, giving us 11 new months.
11x37=407 meaning the pevious tests history would predict there were 407 people made off this list thus far.
Actual people made: 444 (according to you guys, I kinda stopped paying attention).
Statistical error of 37 or about 8 percent.
Given the average about 360 additional potential sergeants should get made before the end of the year.

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 403
Date:

DUDE YOU ARE ON THE WRONG JOB.WITH YOUR MATH SKILLS YOU SHOULD WORK FOR NASA



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 380
Date:

Holy crap, Math class all over again. 



__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 523
Date:

Good job ohnoes, you are spot on with the numbers and I would agree with you IF the list does last say 45-48 months, but with an exam already coming in October, I am having doubts whether or not the the list will stay active for that long.

Lets say they expedite the Oct 2013 list to a quick 6 months for list establishment, that means at the fastest its out by April 2014 (6 months) which would also mean IF that happens, the list would die after only 24 months after establishment? Lets say they wait a year? Then its 30 months? 45-48 months which is what it may take if this rate continues means they would have to hold up the October 2013 list for nearly 2 years before establishing a list? Could happen, but I doubt it.

Looks like a few hundred people will likely die on the current list unless they hold the new list for about 2 years...

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 198
Date:

I'm not going to lie, I actually like math and statistics.

PGIMB I agree I'm not sure the list will hold out 45 months, I had done this math originally for myself to attempt to predict when I would get promoted, it was pretty close. I personally have no opinion if whether the whole list will get made or not.

Anyone can pm me and I'll apply the math to them or explain it more concisely.

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1550
Date:

I am in the 915-920 range so my ass is going to be close to the first down marker. LMAO



-- Edited by Su Madre 24 on Monday 11th of February 2013 06:45:42 PM

__________________

67 on 2015 Lt Exam. DISGRACE!

 

Lt Exam Wars

Episode II : Vucinaj Strikes Back

2017



Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1022
Date:

their planning on making this new sgt exam (Oct 2013) effective in april of 2014. thats what i got from 1pp as of friday. lets hope they keep flying thru this list

__________________

I cannot tell a lie I did cut it with my hatchet

Pay no attention to my posts any longer. 

I can not help myself in creating lies.



Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1550
Date:

Ondeeair, I am asking for YOUR OPINION. If this list DOES DIE what list # would u think it ends at?

__________________

67 on 2015 Lt Exam. DISGRACE!

 

Lt Exam Wars

Episode II : Vucinaj Strikes Back

2017



Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1022
Date:

i hope they promote everyone. maybe high 900's or low 1000's is my opinion. they plan on making new list effective in april 2014

__________________

I cannot tell a lie I did cut it with my hatchet

Pay no attention to my posts any longer. 

I can not help myself in creating lies.



Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1550
Date:

Well I got one less guy to worry. The "cannibal cop" is high on this list. lol

__________________

67 on 2015 Lt Exam. DISGRACE!

 

Lt Exam Wars

Episode II : Vucinaj Strikes Back

2017



Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1550
Date:

My Conservative Assumptions

1) ALL BACKFILLS GETTING MADE

2) March '13 taking just 30 BACKFILLS

3) July '13 taking the remaining 34 BACKFILLS

4) Aug '13 AND Dec '13 as PROJECTED OFF MONTHS

5) The remaining qualifying months being 45 per class

6) And March '14 being the last month of our list

My guess is this list dies at 953

__________________

67 on 2015 Lt Exam. DISGRACE!

 

Lt Exam Wars

Episode II : Vucinaj Strikes Back

2017

FPS


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 34
Date:

I was hoping that the list hits 900 in oct or nov this year. 



__________________
Page 1 of 1  sorted by
 
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.

Tweet this page Post to Digg Post to Del.icio.us