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technocrat1 · Guru

# of YTD Lt. Promotions

Abeyance · Senior Member

some more info, please correct if wrong.

out of the 755 from the last list, 674 were ultimately promoted. So 81 people were permanently passed over, resigned, gave up the promotion, etc.

-- Edited by Abeyance on Monday 15th of October 2012 11:33:59 PM

Abeyance · Senior Member

Lt. promotions YTD

Total # of promotions for exam #1534 = 446 Lts. since the list was established, (June of 2012).

2014 - 126 as of 7/28/14
2013 - 199
2012 - 190 (121 from exam 1534)
2011 - 189
2010 - 171
2009 - 117
2008 - 128
2007 - 228
2006 - 209
2005 - 261
2004 - 211

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 26th of October 2012 05:33:15 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 26th of October 2012 05:34:18 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 26th of October 2012 05:34:40 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 25th of January 2013 05:33:09 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 26th of April 2013 06:40:31 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 26th of April 2013 06:41:42 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 28th of June 2013 03:19:28 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 30th of August 2013 04:22:02 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Monday 30th of September 2013 07:20:58 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 25th of October 2013 04:45:29 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Sunday 2nd of February 2014 07:11:18 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Saturday 29th of March 2014 09:30:11 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 1st of August 2014 11:19:32 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 1st of August 2014 11:23:36 PM

Abeyance · Senior Member

Did a little research and found 161 promotions to Lt. so far this year (includes both lists).

Add the upcoming class of 27, and it becomes 188. If there is one more class left for the year, it will be over 200.

I was also reading the article about the wave of possible large number of retirements for the next couple of years.

Will this mean our list will be moving quite fast? Is it logical to think there will be at least 200 lts made a year, possibly more.

Whadaya think

wereinbacklog · Guru

Yeap 200 a year sounds about right. They promoted 755 in 4 years on the 2006 Lt exam that's an average of 188 during a period when folks weren't retiring. I can see that number increasing due to the impending mass retirements.

smartcookie · Senior Member

I sure hope you guys are right! I need to get the f*%^ out of where I am and my # is a while away!! furious

Booking Fool · Senior Member

My Avatar is so much more relevant this time of year!!

JustWonderin · Guru

Great job abeyance. His many promoted so far just from the 1534 list

Abeyance · Senior Member

looks like 92 from our list,

Booking Fool · Senior Member

Abeyance wrote:
looks like 92 from our list,

That actually sucks. If you look at Unborns list, the main reason there are so many pass overs is because of ineligibility due to time in rank. Many of the passovers aren't eligible until Oct, Nov, Dec and Feb. So it looks like we'll be stuck around list # 130 for the next 4 months at least.

Abeyance · Senior Member

listen pumpkin head, it's really not bad at all!
92 in the last 3-4 months is quite peppy. Don't forget there will always be people without enough time in rank in the front end of any list. That will stabilize by the spring, and you will be well on your merry way to being a reasonable leftenant.

Booking Fool · Senior Member

lmao!!! Love your optimism. I hope I am merry by spring. Even if it is "that" unit!!!

Abeyance · Senior Member

late spring/early summer. You know, planting season

Abeyance · Senior Member

keep them coming

JustWonderin · Guru

So how many promoted from our list now?

-- Edited by JustWonderin on Sunday 24th of February 2013 07:46:21 PM

Abeyance · Senior Member

146 if my math is correct

JustWonderin · Guru

Ok. Not bad, not great. Looks like we are on pace for 200 for the first year of this list. That's 2 more classes of 25-30, give or take, by June

1534sux · Senior Member

Soo it looks like there will only be about 300 new Lts for the entire rank by the time this new Captains test rolls around. Not a good showing for the last test plus a small pool of fresh blood = another small Captains list!!!!!!!!

JustWonderin · Guru

Yup. Good for the guys promoted already and good for the second half of the list because there will prob be another test in 2015, if not 2014

-- Edited by JustWonderin on Tuesday 26th of February 2013 03:31:52 PM

-- Edited by JustWonderin on Tuesday 26th of February 2013 03:32:32 PM

big guy · Senior Member

Is there a good chance that low 500's could get promoted by end of 2014?? Or are the chances slim??

technocrat1 · Guru

Anything is possible, but I see it more towards early 2015. Just my 2 cents.

big guy · Senior Member

Yes thanks i also do..on the pace of 200 a year it would get to 500 in dec 2014, i was hoping maybe it would pick up the pace in the next year or so but prob will keep going at this rate

twntynout · Senior Member

Im in mid 400's and im still hoping to get promoted by summer of '14....sounds about right?

JustWonderin · Guru

Possibly. Maybe closer to fall

IhaveNoHook · Senior Member

mid 400s summer 2014 at the latest i bet

LateRiser · Senior Member

End of 2014 at the earliest

JustWonderin · Guru

Abeyance, that means they would have to promote 300 or more LT's in a 12-15 month period. You may want to re-think that statement. However, I do hope your right

-- Edited by JustWonderin on Friday 1st of March 2013 12:28:05 AM

Abeyance · Senior Member

twntynout wrote:
Im in mid 400's and im still hoping to get promoted by summer of '14....sounds about right?

Me too, I think way before the end of 2014, probably next spring. Someone on the sgt's forum said, 1pp expects increased and steady Lt. retirements.

nycop80 · Guru

well 7 more just retired as of personel orders Feb 27th 2013.

Abeyance · Senior Member

it is an ambitious statement, I know. But it has happened before, where 250+ were promoted in a year. Don't forget not every single person is getting promoted, ( I hope all do ), but it seems about 10% do not. Thats already 30 or so less for the time period we are talking about. Can 260-270 get made between now and next year april, I think so. My argument also relies on the notion that, many of the 'Safe Street' recruits 20 plus years ago will leave in the next several years in good numbers.

technocrat1 · Guru

nycop, does the 7 retired reflect on the current vacancies?

nycop80 · Guru

Down 11 and 33 terminal

-- Edited by nycop80 on Saturday 2nd of March 2013 02:34:48 AM

JustWonderin · Guru

Good point abeyance, hope you're right. Nycop, those orders are always after the fact. The numbers (vacancies) on therumormill are more up to date

technocrat1 · Guru

thanks

JustWonderin · Guru

??? Weren't we down 11 with 33 on terminal? Where are you getting those numbers from?

nycop80 · Guru

yes , was typo

JustWonderin · Guru

So we are 196 year to date?

bha78 · Senior Member

If you start from June of 2012 then yes.

JustWonderin · Guru

Right, I meant from our list

Abeyance · Senior Member

Bump

Abeyance · Senior Member

I have to admit, I am bit dissapointed with the numbers. 145 promotions this year is not inline with what a lot of us are talking about, as we expect all the large classes from 20 years ago to leave.

Booking Fool · Senior Member

yesterday was the retirement date. give it till at least Monday.

JustWonderin · Guru

Abeyance wrote:
I have to admit, I am bit dissapointed with the numbers. 145 promotions this year is not inline with what a lot of us are talking about, as we expect all the large classes from 20 years ago to leave.

Where are you getting 145 from? Remember, the first hire off this list was June 2012 and I think we ended at 196 no? So now we have to count from june this year and on for the current YTD

Abeyance · Senior Member

Lt. promotions YTD

Total # of promotions for exam #1534 = 446 Lts. since the list was established, (June of 2012).

2014 - 126 as of 7/28/14
2013 - 199
2012 - 190 (121 from exam 1534)
2011 - 189
2010 - 171
2009 - 117
2008 - 128
2007 - 228
2006 - 209
2005 - 261
2004 - 211

-- Edited by Abeyance on Monday 30th of September 2013 07:21:56 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 25th of October 2013 04:46:05 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Saturday 29th of March 2014 09:30:57 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 1st of August 2014 11:20:40 PM

-- Edited by Abeyance on Friday 1st of August 2014 11:23:12 PM

Gomery2898 · Veteran Member

wereinbacklog wrote:
Definitely 2 more classes remaining. Hopefully the job does the right thing and promote those candidates before the Captain exam (for those interested).

Don't see two more classes going in before the Captain exam. I'm thinking one more class in September, nothing in October and maybe another in November. But the November class will not be promoted in time for the exam since Thanksgiving would fall a week before the promotions(Nov 29th[Thanksgiving is on the 21st]). I based this on the projected numbers and the fact that they have promotions scheduled for September(Sgts). I took another look at the numbers and it seems November will be a long shot unless they promote Captains, so December looks more probable.

-- Edited by Gomery2898 on Saturday 31st of August 2013 05:42:17 PM

Booking Fool · Senior Member

I thinking theres 2 more classes this year. Sept/Oct and probably December. Assuming 30 each that'll bring us to that 200 mark.

wereinbacklog · Guru

Definitely 2 more classes remaining. Hopefully the job does the right thing and promote those candidates before the Captain exam (for those interested).

Gamblor · Senior Member

Gomery2898 wrote:
wereinbacklog wrote:
Definitely 2 more classes remaining. Hopefully the job does the right thing and promote those candidates before the Captain exam (for those interested).
Don't see two more classes going in before the Captain exam. I'm thinking one more class in September, nothing in October and maybe another in November. But the November class will not be promoted in time for the exam since Thanksgiving would fall a week before the promotions(Nov 29th[Thanksgiving is on the 21st]). I based this on the projected numbers and the fact that they have promotions scheduled for September(Sgts). I took another look at the numbers and it seems November will be a long shot unless they promote Captains, so December looks more probable.

-- Edited by Gomery2898 on Saturday 31st of August 2013 05:42:17 PM

Thanksgiving is on the 28th.

Abeyance · Senior Member

updated

Abeyance · Senior Member

Check it out