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Post Info TOPIC: whats the chances of this list being cut


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RE: whats the chances of this list being cut


ohnoes wrote:

In statistics the only thing you have to go by is past data to attempt to predict the future. Here is what we know:

There were 783 names on the last list.
The first class was promoted in November 2010 and the last class was promoted March 2012.
Thats 783 promotees (give or take passovers etc...) in 17 months.
783 promotees / 17 months = 46 promotees/month on average

Now using that historical data of 46 Promotees a month, I don't think the economy is any better or worse than it was last year, so the need for Sergeants will roughly be the same:

a list of 1663 potential promotees
1663 potentials/46 average= 37 months.

37 months to exhaust the list using historical data.

Don't jump all over me, I'm not saying it's right I'm just saying this is what the data from the previous list tells us. If I figured in the data from the list previous to the 2009 list (which I don't have, but I remember a big gap in promotions in the middle to end of the list) the time to promotion would be much greater, however I don't think it would surpass 48 months. 



-- Edited by ohnoes on Friday 13th of July 2012 07:30:41 PM



-- Edited by ohnoes on Friday 13th of July 2012 09:34:22 PM


Um I'm pretty sure this list is up to exactly # 920, in 20 months since the old list was exhausted. 

ABove I said the department averages about 46 promotees a month.

46x20=920!



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I know someone got the compstat math correct on their test.

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Yeah, that's pretty good math!

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May 1st was our lists first class. April was the last lists last class.



-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 21st of November 2013 01:29:49 AM

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Actually 20 months from may 1st would be January. Just saying. Lol.

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Um the last promotion off the las list was march 31, 2012. So you have

1.april 12, 2. may 12, 3. jun 12, 4. jul, 5. aug 12, 6. sept 12, 7. oct 12, 8. nov 12, 9. dec 12, 10. jan 13, 11. feb 13, 12. mar 13, 13. apr 13, 14. may 13, 15. jun 13, 16. jul 13, 17. aug 13, 18. sept 13, 19. oct 13, 20. nov 13

statistics doesnt account for months between tests its an AVERAGE per month.

Just saying lol

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Did anyone have to go to EMD before they got promoted down the line?



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ohnoes wrote:

Um the last promotion off the las list was march 31, 2012. So you have

1.april 12, 2. may 12, 3. jun 12, 4. jul, 5. aug 12, 6. sept 12, 7. oct 12, 8. nov 12, 9. dec 12, 10. jan 13, 11. feb 13, 12. mar 13, 13. apr 13, 14. may 13, 15. jun 13, 16. jul 13, 17. aug 13, 18. sept 13, 19. oct 13, 20. nov 13

statistics doesnt account for months between tests its an AVERAGE per month.

Just saying lol


bro first class was may 2012 not april



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Not sure how to explain this simpler than, it's about when the last list was exhausted not the first class on this list. It's an AVERAGE down months (which the months previous to the first class are) count.

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Just as easy to say they do 550-600 every 12 months which is what they actually average.

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Actually historically they average 552 every 12 months, which is the same as saying 46 a month.

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Semp1 wrote:

May 1st was our lists first class. April was the last lists last class.



-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 21st of November 2013 01:29:49 AM


 Not true...1st BMOC started on 04/30/12 and promoted on 05/29/12.........2009 list's last BMOC was promoted on 03/30/12.



-- Edited by mjehangir96 on Friday 22nd of November 2013 03:08:34 AM

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yawn



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***4/30/12....5/29/12

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Does anyone know what happens if you get passed up  for a ccrb or investigation.



-- Edited by queensfinest on Friday 22nd of November 2013 02:31:58 PM

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queensfinest wrote:

Does anyone know what happens if you get passed up  for a ccrb or investigation.



-- Edited by queensfinest on Friday 22nd of November 2013 02:31:58 PM


 You need to be cleared. From my understanding you need to sit back and wait bc there's not much you can do. If it's for something such as charges and specs or monitoring then most likely you're going to have to go to CARB. 



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If you have a few lawsuits you will be carbed,

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Thank you 



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Zookeeper6 wrote:

If you have a few lawsuits you will be carbed,


 open or closed lawsuits?



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Zookeeper6 wrote:

If you have a few lawsuits you will be carbed,


 If that was true I would of had to go to carb.  I got promoted with 2 or 3 open ones.



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It's is true, trust me I know they look at dollar amount

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Zookeeper6 wrote:

It's is true, trust me I know they look at dollar amount


 That makes little sense.  You don't know what the dollar amount will be until the case is settled or goes to trial.  Which unit is looking at the dollar amount?



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EMD ask around I'm not making this up,

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bigfoot45 wrote:
Zookeeper6 wrote:

It's is true, trust me I know they look at dollar amount


 That makes little sense.  You don't know what the dollar amount will be until the case is settled or goes to trial.  Which unit is looking at the dollar amount?


bigfoot...100 percent true. someone in bmoc had to go to carb while in bmoc! i asked why they had to go. They swore up and down to the reason. They were sued once! the payout was big, over 100k! I didnt get to what the lawsuit was about but they wanted to question them on it! they ended up being able to get promoted but i couldnt believe that one lawsuit with a big pay out could result in a carb hearing.


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I don't know if you are talking about the same person I know but this happened to my friend. They were in bmoc and got pulled to go to carb bc their lawsuit had a huge payout. They were never in any trouble besides that. 



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I gotcha. But the lawsuit has to settle to figure out the dollar amount.  Everyone either asks for like 15 million or a number to be determined by a jury.



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yep it was a settled suit. I had an open suit against me and never had a problem getting promoted.



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Well after talking to some of my boys about the 13 test review, the last 30 all counted so everyone failed who stopped at 100. So needless to say if your at the bottom of the 11 list you can probably breath a little easier

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skellbox wrote:

Well after talking to some of my boys about the 13 test review, the last 30 all counted so everyone failed who stopped at 100. So needless to say if your at the bottom of the 11 list you can probably breath a little easier


 seemed like alot of ppl passed on this site. Think were gonna have another big list??



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My pct has less than 6 people who passed other guys less than 7. I'm thinking that list will be the smallest in years for a sgts test. No more than 600. That's my guess.

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sgt2be wrote:
skellbox wrote:

Well after talking to some of my boys about the 13 test review, the last 30 all counted so everyone failed who stopped at 100. So needless to say if your at the bottom of the 11 list you can probably breath a little easie


 seemed like alot of ppl passed on this site. Think were gonna have another big list??


 It makes sense that the only people posting are late 60 scorers and up. They're the ones who studied, and were likely looking forward to getting their scores. Someone who scores a 45 probably doesn't care enough to post their score.



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im thinking half the 2011 list. the 2011 list almost every pct had double digit that pass the test. but the 2013 test my cmd only has 3 im hearing about the same in other pcts as well

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How long before we have guys coming back and saying that all of us still waiting to be promoted will be cut in April when the new eligible list gets established?

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I'm sure Ondeeair's source/boy will come in with words from the powers that be...

jim+carrey.gif



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My command had about 15 that passed the test in 2011. None so far passed 2013 test.

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In phase 1 today the sgt doing the class said everyone is getting made.

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What about a January class?

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Sgt. Keeney said she thinks there should be one but didn't have concrete information.

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