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Statistically speaking, promoting the entire list would be impossible...unless the commissioner advocates for an extension on the list after 4 active years. Most likely, the Department will only promote about 800-900 Lieutenants from this list within the 4 active years. DCAS will most likely have another Lieutenant's exam in either 2021 or 2022. Good luck everyone. Who really knows what will happen in the future. Only time can tell.
Statistically speaking, promoting the entire list would be impossible...unless the commissioner advocates for an extension on the list after 4 active years. Most likely, the Department will only promote about 800-900 Lieutenants from this list within the 4 active years. DCAS will most likely have another Lieutenant's exam in either 2021 or 2022. Good luck everyone. Who really knows what will happen in the future. Only time can tell.
I agree. 1300 on the list. 1600 on the job.
Theres no way 80% of the current Lts on the job will be fired, promoted, or retired in the next 3 years.
Historically the job has also never promoted more than 800 Lts on a list.
And if the rumor is true about no class until May, then 6 months with no promotions doesnt bode well.
Remember, there only 16xx active Lt's otj...the Capt's list is only 266...taking that into consideration as far as vacancies. Unless there's an exodus, we are looking at small classes with a lot of breaks in between.
Statistically speaking, promoting the entire list would be impossible...unless the commissioner advocates for an extension on the list after 4 active years. Most likely, the Department will only promote about 800-900 Lieutenants from this list within the 4 active years. DCAS will most likely have another Lieutenant's exam in either 2021 or 2022. Good luck everyone. Who really knows what will happen in the future. Only time can tell.
I agree. This is my take as well. Though it feels like a lull, we're still on pace for the historical average of promotion rates. It's true that no one knows what will happen. The job can over-promote towards the end. They can do whatever it is they have to do to extend. Who knows. But, my personal opinion is 800-900 and we won't know until the list approaches expiration.
Statistically speaking, promoting the entire list would be impossible...unless the commissioner advocates for an extension on the list after 4 active years. Most likely, the Department will only promote about 800-900 Lieutenants from this list within the 4 active years. DCAS will most likely have another Lieutenant's exam in either 2021 or 2022. Good luck everyone. Who really knows what will happen in the future. Only time can tell.
I agree. This is my take as well. Though it feels like a lull, we're still on pace for the historical average of promotion rates. It's true that no one knows what will happen. The job can over-promote towards the end. They can do whatever it is they have to do to extend. Who knows. But, my personal opinion is 800-900 and we won't know until the list approaches expiration.
For my stake I hope they get over 1000. But as always thanks 63asap.
Statistically speaking, promoting the entire list would be impossible...unless the commissioner advocates for an extension on the list after 4 active years. Most likely, the Department will only promote about 800-900 Lieutenants from this list within the 4 active years. DCAS will most likely have another Lieutenant's exam in either 2021 or 2022. Good luck everyone. Who really knows what will happen in the future. Only time can tell.
I agree. This is my take as well. Though it feels like a lull, we're still on pace for the historical average of promotion rates. It's true that no one knows what will happen. The job can over-promote towards the end. They can do whatever it is they have to do to extend. Who knows. But, my personal opinion is 800-900 and we won't know until the list approaches expiration.
For my stake I hope they get over 1000. But as always thanks 63asap.
Dont get stuck looking at the history of the job too much as you can see we are in uncharted territory. If the average is 200 a year then we are well over that for this year. The first class was June 2018 we are up to list 217. Everyone just sit back and lets see what happens because stressing a couple down months and throwing out rumors doesnt help
Dont get stuck looking at the history of the job too much as you can see we are in uncharted territory. If the average is 200 a year then we are well over that for this year. The first class was June 2018 we are up to list 217. Everyone just sit back and lets see what happens because stressing a couple down months and throwing out rumors doesnt help
While this is true, the average is the same. It only appears to be higher because we were playing catch up in the wake of the 2015 exam where we saw little to no promotions for an extended period. We are still very much within the 180-200 average.
If the rumor of the next class in May ends up being true, if they do in fact put in 40 or so LTs, then that would put us at around 250 on the list. The list will hit the 1-year mark as of June 5th 2019, so essentially we will be slightly above average. But as the good 63ASAP reiterated, we were playing catch up at first. I still firmly believe that the list will hit the 900s, beyond that I would be shattered if I fell below that.
