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That's a reasonable assumption. Of course it would be announced, at the VERY least, 6 months prior to the exam date.
In additional to regular attrition they are increasing the size of the job so if this list winds up being <400 you're probably see an exam date in 2017. When in 2017 depends on just how small the list is. If it is north of 600 you'll probably see the traditional four-year span. Perhaps a little less because the attrition rates have picked up a bit with the better economy and terminal buy out.