RISING STAR ! The ultimate source to ace your NYPD Sergeant, Lieutenant, and Captain Exam Visit www.RisingStarPromotion.com to order our questions specifically designed for maximum retention of the Patrol Guide--plus full-length exams!

Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: whats the chances of this list being cut


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 198
Date:
RE: whats the chances of this list being cut


ohnoes wrote:

In statistics the only thing you have to go by is past data to attempt to predict the future. Here is what we know:

There were 783 names on the last list.
The first class was promoted in November 2010 and the last class was promoted March 2012.
Thats 783 promotees (give or take passovers etc...) in 17 months.
783 promotees / 17 months = 46 promotees/month on average

Now using that historical data of 46 Promotees a month, I don't think the economy is any better or worse than it was last year, so the need for Sergeants will roughly be the same:

a list of 1663 potential promotees
1663 potentials/46 average= 37 months.

37 months to exhaust the list using historical data.

Don't jump all over me, I'm not saying it's right I'm just saying this is what the data from the previous list tells us. If I figured in the data from the list previous to the 2009 list (which I don't have, but I remember a big gap in promotions in the middle to end of the list) the time to promotion would be much greater, however I don't think it would surpass 48 months. 



-- Edited by ohnoes on Friday 13th of July 2012 07:30:41 PM



-- Edited by ohnoes on Friday 13th of July 2012 09:34:22 PM


Um I'm pretty sure this list is up to exactly # 920, in 20 months since the old list was exhausted. 

ABove I said the department averages about 46 promotees a month.

46x20=920!



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 289
Date:

I know someone got the compstat math correct on their test.

__________________

~ 20 Years to Get The White Shirt, That's The Goal!  ~



Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 163
Date:

Yeah, that's pretty good math!

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 871
Date:

May 1st was our lists first class. April was the last lists last class.



-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 21st of November 2013 01:29:49 AM

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 871
Date:

Actually 20 months from may 1st would be January. Just saying. Lol.

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 198
Date:

Um the last promotion off the las list was march 31, 2012. So you have

1.april 12, 2. may 12, 3. jun 12, 4. jul, 5. aug 12, 6. sept 12, 7. oct 12, 8. nov 12, 9. dec 12, 10. jan 13, 11. feb 13, 12. mar 13, 13. apr 13, 14. may 13, 15. jun 13, 16. jul 13, 17. aug 13, 18. sept 13, 19. oct 13, 20. nov 13

statistics doesnt account for months between tests its an AVERAGE per month.

Just saying lol

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 584
Date:

Did anyone have to go to EMD before they got promoted down the line?



__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 969
Date:

ohnoes wrote:

Um the last promotion off the las list was march 31, 2012. So you have

1.april 12, 2. may 12, 3. jun 12, 4. jul, 5. aug 12, 6. sept 12, 7. oct 12, 8. nov 12, 9. dec 12, 10. jan 13, 11. feb 13, 12. mar 13, 13. apr 13, 14. may 13, 15. jun 13, 16. jul 13, 17. aug 13, 18. sept 13, 19. oct 13, 20. nov 13

statistics doesnt account for months between tests its an AVERAGE per month.

Just saying lol


bro first class was may 2012 not april



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 198
Date:

Not sure how to explain this simpler than, it's about when the last list was exhausted not the first class on this list. It's an AVERAGE down months (which the months previous to the first class are) count.

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 871
Date:

Just as easy to say they do 550-600 every 12 months which is what they actually average.

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 198
Date:

Actually historically they average 552 every 12 months, which is the same as saying 46 a month.

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 226
Date:

Semp1 wrote:

May 1st was our lists first class. April was the last lists last class.



-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 21st of November 2013 01:29:49 AM


 Not true...1st BMOC started on 04/30/12 and promoted on 05/29/12.........2009 list's last BMOC was promoted on 03/30/12.



-- Edited by mjehangir96 on Friday 22nd of November 2013 03:08:34 AM

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1521
Date:

yawn



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 226
Date:

***4/30/12....5/29/12

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 403
Date:

Does anyone know what happens if you get passed up  for a ccrb or investigation.



-- Edited by queensfinest on Friday 22nd of November 2013 02:31:58 PM

__________________


Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 19
Date:

queensfinest wrote:

Does anyone know what happens if you get passed up  for a ccrb or investigation.



-- Edited by queensfinest on Friday 22nd of November 2013 02:31:58 PM


 You need to be cleared. From my understanding you need to sit back and wait bc there's not much you can do. If it's for something such as charges and specs or monitoring then most likely you're going to have to go to CARB. 



__________________


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 87
Date:

If you have a few lawsuits you will be carbed,

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 403
Date:

Thank you 



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 128
Date:

Zookeeper6 wrote:

If you have a few lawsuits you will be carbed,


 open or closed lawsuits?



__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1082
Date:

Zookeeper6 wrote:

If you have a few lawsuits you will be carbed,


 If that was true I would of had to go to carb.  I got promoted with 2 or 3 open ones.



__________________


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 87
Date:

It's is true, trust me I know they look at dollar amount

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1082
Date:

Zookeeper6 wrote:

It's is true, trust me I know they look at dollar amount


 That makes little sense.  You don't know what the dollar amount will be until the case is settled or goes to trial.  Which unit is looking at the dollar amount?



__________________


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 87
Date:

EMD ask around I'm not making this up,

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 969
Date:

bigfoot45 wrote:
Zookeeper6 wrote:

It's is true, trust me I know they look at dollar amount


 That makes little sense.  You don't know what the dollar amount will be until the case is settled or goes to trial.  Which unit is looking at the dollar amount?


bigfoot...100 percent true. someone in bmoc had to go to carb while in bmoc! i asked why they had to go. They swore up and down to the reason. They were sued once! the payout was big, over 100k! I didnt get to what the lawsuit was about but they wanted to question them on it! they ended up being able to get promoted but i couldnt believe that one lawsuit with a big pay out could result in a carb hearing.


__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 153
Date:

I don't know if you are talking about the same person I know but this happened to my friend. They were in bmoc and got pulled to go to carb bc their lawsuit had a huge payout. They were never in any trouble besides that. 



__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1082
Date:

I gotcha. But the lawsuit has to settle to figure out the dollar amount.  Everyone either asks for like 15 million or a number to be determined by a jury.



__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 969
Date:

yep it was a settled suit. I had an open suit against me and never had a problem getting promoted.



__________________


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 58
Date:

Well after talking to some of my boys about the 13 test review, the last 30 all counted so everyone failed who stopped at 100. So needless to say if your at the bottom of the 11 list you can probably breath a little easier

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 969
Date:

skellbox wrote:

Well after talking to some of my boys about the 13 test review, the last 30 all counted so everyone failed who stopped at 100. So needless to say if your at the bottom of the 11 list you can probably breath a little easier


 seemed like alot of ppl passed on this site. Think were gonna have another big list??



__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 871
Date:

My pct has less than 6 people who passed other guys less than 7. I'm thinking that list will be the smallest in years for a sgts test. No more than 600. That's my guess.

__________________


Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 18
Date:

sgt2be wrote:
skellbox wrote:

Well after talking to some of my boys about the 13 test review, the last 30 all counted so everyone failed who stopped at 100. So needless to say if your at the bottom of the 11 list you can probably breath a little easie


 seemed like alot of ppl passed on this site. Think were gonna have another big list??


 It makes sense that the only people posting are late 60 scorers and up. They're the ones who studied, and were likely looking forward to getting their scores. Someone who scores a 45 probably doesn't care enough to post their score.



__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 268
Date:

im thinking half the 2011 list. the 2011 list almost every pct had double digit that pass the test. but the 2013 test my cmd only has 3 im hearing about the same in other pcts as well

__________________


Veteran Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 74
Date:

How long before we have guys coming back and saying that all of us still waiting to be promoted will be cut in April when the new eligible list gets established?

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 711
Date:

I'm sure Ondeeair's source/boy will come in with words from the powers that be...

jim+carrey.gif



__________________

THE GIF MASTER.

tumblr_inline_nn342vvxE61t3vdw2_500.gif

 

'TRUE ELITE!'

 



Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 163
Date:

My command had about 15 that passed the test in 2011. None so far passed 2013 test.

__________________


Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 153
Date:

In phase 1 today the sgt doing the class said everyone is getting made.

__________________


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 1550
Date:

What about a January class?

__________________

67 on 2015 Lt Exam. DISGRACE!

 

Lt Exam Wars

Episode II : Vucinaj Strikes Back

2017



Senior Member

Status: Offline
Posts: 153
Date:

Sgt. Keeney said she thinks there should be one but didn't have concrete information.

__________________
«First  <  16 7 8 | Page of 8  sorted by
 
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.

Tweet this page Post to Digg Post to Del.icio.us