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Post Info TOPIC: whats the chances of this list being cut


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whats the chances of this list being cut


You'll know if you need to study. It really depends what list number they're at when they announce another test and how much time they have left to 4 years. But I could bet the whole list gets made in under 4 years. The List is presently at 230 from which by the end of the month over 180 promoted already and the list has only been active 3 months by that point and you got another 45 months left. So what do you think it looks like.

-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 6th of July 2012 04:02:37 AM

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im in the high 1400's and i will prob be one of the last 4 or 5 classes, whats the likely hood of the last 300 names or so getting the kabash? 



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They have covered this many times over. Many say the entire list will get made some and a few trolls say no. We will all have to wait and see

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um, do you need to know right this minute ???



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I suggest you study for the next test just to be on The safe side!

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I would say you have a very good chance, 700ish lieutenants made the cut on the 2006 list and they need them a lot less than they need sergeants. The likelihood of 1664 sergeants getting promoted in four years is pretty high.

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I wouldn't worry. Seems like a four year list. Look at the past 2 sgt lists. The we're about half the size and were exhausted very quickly. I wouldn't worry. I believe all will be made.

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I am not trolling when I will give a few fun facts, the last 3 lists that had this many people on it were in fact cut short by a few hundred names. I realize that is a really long time ago, the last time they cut the list was the 2003 test with about 1700 names by over 500+ names to establish the 2006 list that was exhausted in about a year.

The 2006 test changed things in that starting with that exam lists were really small and everyone got made. 2006 was 600+, 2007 was 300+, 2008 was 700+, and 2009 was 700+.

Now we see a new list with 1600+ names, which reverts back to the old days when lists were cut. I am not saying I have any inside info on this and we have another 3 years and change to see if it happens, but if I were a betting man I think it will get cut short.

So a lot of people on here are looking at this with the rose colored glasses of the last 4 Sgt's tests that all had much smaller lists and using that as an indication of a list with more than doubled the names. I think it would be wiser to look at how they used to run these lists by cutting them and giving another test every few years. This list is similar in size to the old lists that were frequently cut by hundreds of names.

Not to burst anyone's bubble, but if they announce a test in 2014 and you are near the bottom of this list, I think it would be wise to study for it, just in case...

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When is the current bmoc class set to graduate?

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The 27

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I've posted before and do believe everyone will get made off this list. The turnover rate on this job with retirement is still high regardless of what people say. Even 8-9 classes a year at 50-60 a class- That's around 450 per year. Of the 1,660+ I think the last 400 or so may be waiting when they announce another test in say late 2014 yet they'll just make it in when a new list is established. People who are hating (Way too many individuals on this job) either didn't take the test, took it just for a tour off, or studied and got a 69.

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The chances of the list being cut is highly unlikely as of now.... That's the only way to answer your question. And do you even care at this point? It's a couple of years away for the bottom of the list... Don't be in such a rush to grow old. Enjoy your lives!!

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I've heard stories of people getting up'd with scores of 57 as recently as the mid 90's. Insane to think a 57 could get you promoted but hey every 5-10 yrs the job changes and sometimes a 180.

-- Edited by JobsAJoke on Sunday 8th of July 2012 04:28:53 AM

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There is no answer to this question. Who could possibly know the "needs of the dept" years in advance. If you were to ask the PC if the list was getting cut he would say "how the f*** should I know".

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Dr Abdullah al-Tiq Afad wrote:

There is no answer to this question. Who could possibly know the "needs of the dept" years in advance. If you were to ask the PC if the list was getting cut he would say "how the f*** should I know".


^ I agree fully yet I can't stand those hating on people who are on the list. Whether your list # was 1 or 1,660 who's to say the person who got a 70 didn't study like a lunatic for 6 months. Regardless of # it's still an accomplishment. Hopefully all get up'd at some point over the next few years.

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Also, remember that the lists that did get cut back in the day did not have a passing score. Everyone on this list passed the test with a 70.

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JobsAJoke wrote:

I've heard stories of people getting up'd with scores of 57 as recently as the mid 90's. Insane to think a 57 could get you promoted but hey every 5-10 yrs the job changes and sometimes a 180.

-- Edited by JobsAJoke on Sunday 8th of July 2012 04:28:53 AM


 Happened on the last LT Exam doh



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Actually before Ray Kelly promotional exams had a passing curve so it was not unheard of a 60's making the list.

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The only exam I know of where people with final scores in the 60's was the 2003 exam. Also it was in the high 60's, but people with 58's made the list at about 1700 at the bottom of the list. After that debacle of a test, a passing score was set at 70 for the 2006 exam and smaller lists became the norm with only a few hundred people making the list.

There where lists before the 2003 exam where people scored well above 70 and the list got cut. Also if anyone remembers the 2003 lieutenant's exam, 81 score was the cutoff, so it went both ways before 70 was a mandated "passing" score just to make the list. But if you look at the 2006 lieutenant's exam, plenty of people who "passed" with a score over 70 did not get made, actually I think it was around 500 people died on that list just recently, so it could happen.

But like I wrote earlier, just bc it could happen doesn't mean it will. I think it will get cut short though, just a hunch. 1600+ people haven't been promoted on a list since the 1990's when there a lot more cops than now OTJ...

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I know of two Sgt's who died recently on that list they scored in the low 70's. If, IF this list were to be cut short I'd say it would be an unlucky 2-300 or so. But again that's a complete opinion I have no in's or any DL info AT all. My hunch is all are made but # 1300+ better not bank on it 100%.

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This debate is an old one and a very stupid one..... List gets cut in 4 years. See me in 3 3 1/2 years and I'll have an answer for you as to the "chances " of the list being cut... As of THIS MOMENT in time it's looking real good everyone gets made. 500 a year is very achievable and we are on pace to do 500 + by may of 2013...things are subject to change of course. So stop making assumptions because truth is....nobody knows. Again I have stated in the past if in the next 4 years they did 450 450 400 360 - that's 1660. So even if they slow down in years to come you have room to play. They need bosses!!! They are promoting sgts to lieutenant!! So hopefully for the bottom guys get made.

I feel strongly about everyone getting made because the scores at the bottom are so damn close. Why should number 1300 with a 75 get promoted and not number 1450 who also has a 75?? Because of a hundredth of a point??? Thats bull****. Both those guys did equally well on the test and if one gets promoted the other one should too!. My opinion.

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Delete.

-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 12th of July 2012 02:44:57 AM

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PatrolGuideismyBible wrote:

The only exam I know of where people with final scores in the 60's was the 2003 exam. Also it was in the high 60's, but people with 58's made the list at about 1700 at the bottom of the list. After that debacle of a test, a passing score was set at 70 for the 2006 exam and smaller lists became the norm with only a few hundred people making the list.

There where lists before the 2003 exam where people scored well above 70 and the list got cut. Also if anyone remembers the 2003 lieutenant's exam, 81 score was the cutoff, so it went both ways before 70 was a mandated "passing" score just to make the list. But if you look at the 2006 lieutenant's exam, plenty of people who "passed" with a score over 70 did not get made, actually I think it was around 500 people died on that list just recently, so it could happen.

But like I wrote earlier, just bc it could happen doesn't mean it will. I think it will get cut short though, just a hunch. 1600+ people haven't been promoted on a list since the 1990's when there a lot more cops than now OTJ...


You're absolutely wrong about list numbers and how many have been promoted. Again 2001 huge list fully promoted. 1999 big list. Fully promoted. The only list cut short to the first 1200 top scores was I believe the 2004 list. It might have been 2003 but that was the only one cut short. Im pretty much 100% sure the list was cut only one time since 1999 and I'm 100% sure the 09/11 class was 2200 big and the whole list was made. So much so that they had a BMOC of 250. They over shot and made half the guys go back to their command for a month and wait to get their shield at a promotional ceremony. 1663 is not considered a big list by the standards set before the passing grade at all. And by the way the PC usually knows in advance if a list will die and usually does announce it. Which is what he did with the 2006 LT test pretty much right away.

-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 12th of July 2012 02:51:19 AM

-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 12th of July 2012 02:53:56 AM

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Spartan if the job was "fair" I would agree, yet I do believe every person on this list will be up'd even if it takes 3+ years. And I'd like to think anyone who wasted 6 months of their life deserves the promotion if passed as well (All usual jokes aside).

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In statistics the only thing you have to go by is past data to attempt to predict the future. Here is what we know:

There were 783 names on the last list.
The first class was promoted in November 2010 and the last class was promoted March 2012.
Thats 783 promotees (give or take passovers etc...) in 17 months.
783 promotees / 17 months = 46 promotees/month on average

Now using that historical data of 46 Promotees a month, I don't think the economy is any better or worse than it was last year, so the need for Sergeants will roughly be the same:

a list of 1663 potential promotees
1663 potentials/46 average= 37 months.

37 months to exhaust the list using historical data.

Don't jump all over me, I'm not saying it's right I'm just saying this is what the data from the previous list tells us. If I figured in the data from the list previous to the 2009 list (which I don't have, but I remember a big gap in promotions in the middle to end of the list) the time to promotion would be much greater, however I don't think it would surpass 48 months. 



-- Edited by ohnoes on Friday 13th of July 2012 07:30:41 PM



-- Edited by ohnoes on Friday 13th of July 2012 09:34:22 PM

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While true that many Sergeants are coming up on the time when they will retire, statistically speaking I don't think that will increase the number of promotions. You see, and I have no proof to back this up just opinion, cops and sergeants IN MY OPINION retire at roughly the same rate, meaning many or most retire at 20 with some staying past. Now if a certain percentage of Sergeants are coming up to retirement and will in fact retire, we'll call that percentage x, than roughly the same percentage of cops are coming up for retirement and will in fact retire. Since x is roughly the same number for both ranks the need for more sergeants would not be based on current retirement levels, the need for Sergeants would be based on current hiring levels.

To put it simply if 1 Sergeant retires the department should refill that position, but if 1 sergeant retires and 8 cops retire at the same time that Sergeant position is effectively eliminated. What you need is 8 new cops hired to create the need to replace the 1 sergeant.

Again, don't jump all over me for this. It's simply by the numbers, I understand that there is no accounting for who, why or how the department promotes or hires (well I'm sure someone is accounting for it, but they're not talking and explaining).



-- Edited by ohnoes on Friday 13th of July 2012 09:43:31 PM

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Sorry Semp1, you are wrong, I know for a fact the 2003 and 2001 Sergeants exams were cut short and know personally people who died on both. Both had over 1600+ names. The 1999 exam might have promoted everyone and was widely viewed as a fair exam, not 100% certain. The test before that one, not sure. The 2003 exam got into the 1100+ range, but had 1700 names on the list.

I am not wishing anyone dying on the list and we all have years to see what really happens, right now its just speculation and there is nothing we can do about it. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but if you are at the bottom of the current list, you might get screwed over. We will know in another 3+ years, but it is very possible...



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We also have to take into account you have many Sgts. who are coming up on their 20, 25, 30 etc. that may be retiring, plus Sgts. being promoted to Lt. Im sorry if guys don't agree with me, but I strongly believe that they will exhaust the list, if not they will at least get to the 1400 range.

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Yeah they are called OMAP lol. You bring up good points.

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Since a fair amount (about 15%) has been promoted I thought I would update my analysis.
Recall that the last list averaged 46 a month, and was exhausted in March of this year, giving us 5 new months (April, May, June, July, August).
5x46=230 meaning the past history would predict there were 230 people made off this list thus far.
Actual people made: 328 (promoted or in BMOC) - 80 (passovers) = 248.
Statistical error of 18 or about 7 percent. Given absolutely no inside knowledge thats pretty good.
The average number adjusted for new data is still 46 almost 47.
Given the average about 184 additional potential sergeants should get made before the end of the year.

The math back to the 09 test would predict that 368 Sergeants had been promoted this year, in actuality...

If you figure in the whole year, 54 in January, 54 in March and 248 thus far for a total of 356. Making it off by less than 4% so far this year.  

356/8 = 44.5 sergeants promoted a month in 2012.

The analysis below I'm not too sure about, because I'm not sure if there is a higher incidence of passovers in the beginning of lists, however...
Current rate of passovers is about 25%.
Using that and the 46 promotees a month number, the math predicts the year will end with the list up to roughly 571.
It seems high I know, that's why I added the disclaimer...
Any complaints please refer to the above posts, it's a limited data set I know, but it's all I have. If someone could get me the date of first class and the number on the list of the list previous to the last (2007?) the math would probably be more accurate in the end.



-- Edited by ohnoes on Saturday 11th of August 2012 04:05:25 PM

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I'm bored and went all the way back to the 2007 list on this website. From what I gather there were:
339 on the 2007 list
671 on the 2008 list
783 on the 2009 list
and 248 promoted on the 2011 list thus far.
Giving a total of roughly 2041 promoted (you have to figure some were not promoted for whatever reason ie jam up, already a sgt, etc)

From what I read the first class off the '07 list was 01/01/08.
Jan 2008 to now is 56 months...
Which averages to 36 promotees a month, for all available data.
List of 1663 people / 36 = 47 months.

So even considering the years when the lists moved slow, this entire list should get promoted, according to the historical mathematical precedent.

It's late and I'm doing this on my phone, so let me know if i made errors.


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i think the whole list will be made. every pct is short on bosses and cops. if theres a tour with an extra boss and the boro finds out. they will call the desk and ask one sgt to fly out and cover a pct or detail.

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ohnoes, great post, and hopefully it'll ease some peoples minds

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An even better way to look at it is since they activated the 2009 list less than 2 years ago they've promoted over 1,000 sgts off both lists combined.

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Everyone is getting made. There isnt going to be any Joe pesci scenes from GoodFellas when He's going to be made and instead he gets wacked.

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YOU GUYS LOVE TO ENTERTAIN THIS B/S POST EHHHH


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They have promoted about 360+ people in only 6 months, that pretty good. At that rate everyone will get made easily if it keeps up.

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The whole list will be made without a doubt!

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There is an article that is stating 10,000 MOS are set to retire over the next 3 years, with many being bosses. Google it. This whole list will get made

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http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20120919/new-york-city/nypd-could-lose-thousands-of-cops-retirement-over-next-few-years

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I don't even know why I'm addressing this but you realize that the classes and promotions at this moment only 6 months into a year cycle are already at the number of total promoted to promote the whole list with in the 4 year cycle of a list. Nothing has slowed down and these classes are not considered small by any one in the department And if Nov and Dec are down months that's fine. Look back to my past posts I always thought this year would follow last years promotions and so far have. If Nov and Dec are not down it'll be ahead of last years promotions. You realize the department is losing possibly 10.000 MOS and a large chunk being supervisors with in these next 3 years, over 630 Sergeants are getting promoted to Lieutenant and vacating spots and the Department as a whole is down below the number that's acceptable in the rank of Sgt. I can't even still believe this is a topic, there's not even evidence what so ever to support any statement besides "the whole list is getting promoted."

-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 18th of October 2012 05:28:15 PM

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MY TWO CENTS:

Classes are starting to get smaller and smaller. The possibility of the list being cut is gaining momentum now.

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They have been promoting really fast, they have already promoted over 300+ in only 6 months of the list being established, figure they would only have to promote a little over 400 a year to go through the whole list in 4 years, assuming they kept the list the full 4 years and didn't give a test early to kill this list.

So assuming this pace or anywhere near it continues AND the city does not give another test early to establish a new list, then yes, everyone will get made easily. But... IF the city pulls what they did in December 2003 and again in January 2006 in giving exams early and killing lists in less than 4 years as it happened the last 2 times list were this large, then people can die on this list.

Only time will tell, but nothing is set in stone. The list doesn't have to last 4 years only that it cannot last more than 4 years. The city can kill it early if they want and give another test, so we will see...

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PatrolGuideismyBible wrote:

They have been promoting really fast, they have already promoted over 300+ in only 6 months of the list being established, figure they would only have to promote a little over 400 a year to go through the whole list in 4 years, assuming they kept the list the full 4 years and didn't give a test early to kill this list.

So assuming this pace or anywhere near it continues AND the city does not give another test early to establish a new list, then yes, everyone will get made easily. But... IF the city pulls what they did in December 2003 and again in January 2006 in giving exams early and killing lists in less than 4 years as it happened the last 2 times list were this large, then people can die on this list.

Only time will tell, but nothing is set in stone. The list doesn't have to last 4 years only that it cannot last more than 4 years. The city can kill it early if they want and give another test, so we will see...


The city never killed a list in 2006 and has not since they've had a passing grade, and name one list that didn't last 4 years in recent history. The reason you can't is it hasn't happened. Since the PC estalished a passing grade the city has let the 4 years of a list ride out. They've offered tests and held the lists establishment until the fulfillment of what ever list was active at the time. Or at the very worst like the last LT's exam let it die pretty much at the day it turned 4 years old. This list will be fully made before 2015.

-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 19th of October 2012 07:34:01 AM

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Absolutely zero chance this list will be cut off. No way.

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this list will never get cut



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Semp1 wrote:

PatrolGuideismyBible wrote:

They have been promoting really fast, they have already promoted over 300+ in only 6 months of the list being established, figure they would only have to promote a little over 400 a year to go through the whole list in 4 years, assuming they kept the list the full 4 years and didn't give a test early to kill this list.

So assuming this pace or anywhere near it continues AND the city does not give another test early to establish a new list, then yes, everyone will get made easily. But... IF the city pulls what they did in December 2003 and again in January 2006 in giving exams early and killing lists in less than 4 years as it happened the last 2 times list were this large, then people can die on this list.

Only time will tell, but nothing is set in stone. The list doesn't have to last 4 years only that it cannot last more than 4 years. The city can kill it early if they want and give another test, so we will see...


The city never killed a list in 2006 and has not since they've had a passing grade, and name one list that didn't last 4 years in recent history. The reason you can't is it hasn't happened. Since the PC estalished a passing grade the city has let the 4 years of a list ride out. They've offered tests and held the lists establishment until the fulfillment of what ever list was active at the time. Or at the very worst like the last LT's exam let it die pretty much at the day it turned 4 years old. This list will be fully made before 2015.

-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 19th of October 2012 07:34:01 AM

Exactly well put my friend

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yep thanks

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Some of you guys must be relatively new to promotional exams. The city cut the December 2003 Sgt Exam in October 2006, I know, I died on it! Also the cut the January 2002 list short, and I was a rookie, but if I remember correctly, they did cut the exam before that short also. Why do I bring up these old exams? They had lists similar in size to the current October 2011 exam!

I have no inside info on another Sgt exam coming soon to cut this current list or some sort of promotional slowdown, so I am not spreading rumors, only facts. Also I dunno what you guys are talking about, no Sgt list in my career lasted a full 4 years, not sure why you guys are soooo adamant about that time frame other than a list MUST expire by then, it doesn't mean it cannot be cut and replaced with another list before then, which used to be the norm!

The Lieutenant Exams in the last 2 I believe lasted the full 4 years. But they did let around 500 names die on the November 2006 exam die. I agree with almost everyone on here now that at the pace they are promoting on the current list, there is a good chance they could promote the whole list, especially if they keep the list active for the full 4 years. But IF they announce another exam within the next couple of years, people could die on this list...

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OK but that's not a 2006 list. That's a 2003 list and it had failing grades where people with 56 were getting promoted and the PC was pretty much disgusted forcing him to make a passing grade of 70. Again the city hasn't cut a list since a passing grade has been established. The reason they haven't lasted 4 years since is because they were smaller and by the way they promoted around 2200 off the 2001 list.

-- Edited by Semp1 on Saturday 20th of October 2012 07:44:54 AM

-- Edited by Semp1 on Saturday 20th of October 2012 01:16:02 PM

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