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Classes going in almost every month at 100 a pop with later classes going in at 65 - 75 a pop.
May = first class
If it's consecutive bmoc classes for the next 8 months at 65 a pop.
We have 520 promotions for the year.
I'm 99 percent sure bmoc will actually be 100 promotions for the first and possibley second class with reductions to 70 promotions a class thereafter.
200 for the first 2 months
420 for the remainder of the 6 months
That would allow you to reach list number 620 by the end of the year for 8 months of promoting.
Don't get excited.. I think they won't promote every month. I'm guessing 2 months will be skipped this year. Final guess is that the list will go to 450 - 500 this year.
Point being that between 1/3 and 1/4 of the list will be done this year. Which leads me back to my original point that the whole list will be made. And that the first 500 guys should be excited about this year. Congrats everyone!!!
From sources that have been right in the past very recently. I'm Sure others will concur with the information I posted (except trolls). It's also more of an educated guess as opposed to just pure optimism. I feel as though I have given a likely scenario. This isn't set in stone of course. Take it for what it's worth. If we reach close to 500 names this year(which would make me very happy) then those who are in the 1600's can breathe easy knowing they have a full 3 years and 4 months to promote the remainder of 1100 people. 500 names every 8 months will finish the list in 26 months. I feel this is possible but it's to unlikely. I'm sticking to my original posts of a 3 1/2 year list.
You speculation is all fine and dandy and most assuredly welcomed but it is unrealistic for one reason only. There is no plan for a new Sgts exam anytime in the future and everyone at the Police academy and OMAP say the same. We are quite possibly looking at an October 2013 Exam at the earliest. That being said it makes no sense that this list should be wiped out expeditiously especially when there are no intentions for a replacement exam until later next year. Yes, everyone wants 500 names to be reached by the end of this year but that's is purely fantasy. If I'd follow your train of thought then this list would quite possibly be done by the end of 2013. It would stand to reason that there would be no new list to feed off until April of 2013. NO EXISTING LIST TO FEED OFF FOR 4 months....UNHEARD OF!
Let us stop with the over zealous estimates and just relax. We will all get a chance to get made so what is the rush?
Classes going in almost every month at 100 a pop with later classes going in at 65 - 75 a pop. May = first class If it's consecutive bmoc classes for the next 8 months at 65 a pop. We have 520 promotions for the year. I'm 99 percent sure bmoc will actually be 100 promotions for the first and possibley second class with reductions to 70 promotions a class thereafter. 200 for the first 2 months 420 for the remainder of the 6 months That would allow you to reach list number 620 by the end of the year for 8 months of promoting. Don't get excited.. I think they won't promote every month. I'm guessing 2 months will be skipped this year. Final guess is that the list will go to 450 - 500 this year. Point being that between 1/3 and 1/4 of the list will be done this year. Which leads me back to my original point that the whole list will be made. And that the first 500 guys should be excited about this year. Congrats everyone!!!
100 for first two classes? Where is this info coming from? You said your 99 percent sure ... so that sounds almost confirmed
All I can say is wait and see gentlemen. Only time can either prove or disprove me. But it's looking real good for list to reach close to 500 this year as of now. Good luck to all.
And if you followed my train of thought the list would be finished in about 3 1/2 years like i stated. I don't think monthly promotions would continue next year.. Once again good luck to you all and we shall see who's right.
I am not saying the speculation of the OP isn't possible, it is very possible, but this list breezing through might not be as sure a thing as many on here are predicting. Are there really that many openings for Sgt's? The economy is still bad for jobs, but good for wall street stocks. I can see more and more people staying past 20 years. Also the Lieutenant's Exam was a complete debacle and I have heard as few as 150 people passed on the proposed answer key. My point? When that Lt's list comes out and it is very small, then even less Sgt spots will open up.
You need retirements and promotions to open up Sgt spots, less and less of those two occurrences are happening due to a poor job market and no Lieutenant promotions now or in the near future and also possibly a small list...
LT told me on the side after I asked a question for myself that its b/c of annual vacation picks during the summer, not sure if he meant future sgts or those who are in charge of the class formation/training.
List is up to 119 already with passovers. That's only 1 class in. 500 seems definite this year!! Everyone stay out of trouble!!!! No CCRB CDs or nothing!!
Now that we have a class in for May and a class for June pretty much comfirmed. Any adjustment or reaffirmation to this? I'm really hoping that they get to near 500 by the end of this year.
Come next month the list will be at 520 minimum and that means effectively over 400total promoted. He never said "promoted". He said the list. And his guess was on point. And let's not forget where the list really was intended on being if it was not for the Hurricane last month.
-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 30th of November 2012 03:08:14 PM
Can anyone guess when they will reach 670-700? (Including the 40 or so that are eligible in January). I'm thinking at the earliest March but probably May, if they put a class in every month. Thanks.
Can anyone guess when they will reach 670-700? (Including the 40 or so that are eligible in January). I'm thinking at the earliest March but probably May, if they put a class in every month. Thanks.
If they keep promoting at the same rate I would guess March.
. And I'm right about the list not being cut!!
