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I'd say that is a pretty fair number - what score do you think #300 will have? 85? In other words, what do you think the minimum score necessary will be in order to be promoted in 2012? I think everyone 85 plus gets made this year.
Maybe an 83 and change or an 84 only because of guys who won't have enough time on the job to get made. This will impact the guys in the top 33 percent of the list in a good way.
I don't really think it will be top heavy. Most people I know that passed are between a 75 and an 82 gross score. If you got an 84 or better you got yourself away from the pack.
So far, from first hand discussions, and elsewhere, it seems a high concentration of 90 and above are those that are not at 5 yrs yet and wont be until 2013. If I'm to guess, I believe you could see high 80's in the first class based on pass overs.
Agree with bigfoot, most people I know got around 77. Out of around 15 or 16 that passed in my command only about four got in the 80s and one guy got a 90. I know one guy personally that got a 94 and I don't think a high number of people did that well, he was studying for around four hours a day+ for six months straight.
I'm hoping to get promoted this year, maybe in the summer. After the list comes out if it looks like it's gonna' take longer I'm putting in for a transfer :p
Talking about 77 raw, seems to be around the average from what I see. At my precinct there were about four guys with low 70s, four guys way up, and around eight within a few points of the 77 area.
I think 77 - 80 is going to be the median score.
If you're above an 80 you're likely in the top 50%
Above an 85 you're at least the top 25%.
Think less than 10% of passing people made above a 90 raw.
