2700 people puts us in unprecedented terrority. So what do you guys think? Id say top 2000 is good to go.

3rdtimetheCharm wrote:

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2011 list had 1700 about. All made it (who cleared) in three years. No Sgt list in the last ten years has been cut.

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 Very true but 2700 is a huge difference compared to 1700. Its not even in the same league.

I got a 79... cut? Who knows. I'm 1650-1675 range.

Just my opinion based on my experience, top 2,000 are a lock.  Starts getting risky after that. 

Sgthopefull2017 wrote:

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the board has an archive of all the conversations. It looks like the 2007 list had only 329 people on it and 2008 had 671.

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 Those are the two hardest sgts exams ever given. You cant compare a fair exam with throwouts to those. Its like apples and airplanes.

I dont believe they can cut it without a lawsuit. i think they would have to amend the notice of examination. With that said I think 2400 will be made if not all. Also a lot are ready to leave just waiting for final pay increase along with no active list.

brooklynbacon wrote:

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Sgthopefull2017 wrote:

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the board has an archive of all the conversations. It looks like the 2007 list had only 329 people on it and 2008 had 671.

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 Those are the two hardest sgts exams ever given. You cant compare a fair exam with throwouts to those. Its like apples and airplanes.

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 Needs of the department are needs of the department. Doesn't matter if a test is easy or hard, they can't promote if they don't have the spots. the relevance here is it took about 11 months to go through the 2007 list and roughly a year and a half to go through 671 names. 671 x 3 will only put you at list 2000, and that's already 4.5 years out if they promote at the same rate. 

somebody posted a chart here of average yearly promotions to sgt. risingstarpromotion.activeboard.com/t59860058/sgt-promotions-on-a-monthlyyearly-basis-dating-to-maybe-the-/

2014 374 promoted

2013 405

2012 510

2011 465.

I don't have the 2015, 2016, or 2017 numbers.. if anyone has them please add to this. Anyway, even if we take 2012 that had 510 sergeants promoted in one year, if you multiply that by 4 years that's only 2,040 names. 

How many will get promoted for 2018?

Sgthopefull2017 wrote:

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brooklynbacon wrote:

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Sgthopefull2017 wrote:

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the board has an archive of all the conversations. It looks like the 2007 list had only 329 people on it and 2008 had 671.

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 Those are the two hardest sgts exams ever given. You cant compare a fair exam with throwouts to those. Its like apples and airplanes.

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 Needs of the department are needs of the department. Doesn't matter if a test is easy or hard, they can't promote if they don't have the spots. the relevance here is it took about 11 months to go through the 2007 list and roughly a year and a half to go through 671 names. 671 x 3 will only put you at list 2000, and that's already 4.5 years out if they promote at the same rate. 

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It took almost 2 and half years to promote the 671.

And id say 450 get promoted in 2018.

cop wrote:

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I dont believe they can cut it without a lawsuit. i think they would have to amend the notice of examination. With that said I think 2400 will be made if not all. Also a lot are ready to leave just waiting for final pay increase along with no active list.

-- Edited by cop on Saturday 30th of December 2017 01:50:04 AM

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 Didnt the 2006 Lt list have a lawsuit because it got cut? That went nowhere and it got cut at a 78.

Just to be clear, you guys are talking about the list expiring after 4 years,  not being cut

3rdtimetheCharm wrote:

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Had a SGT who was on the 99 list. Approx 3600 all who cleared got promoted

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 I was promoted off of the 99 list. There were 1764 people +- on that list. We all made it. 

3rdtimetheCharm wrote:

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2011 list had 1700 about. All made it (who cleared) in three years. No Sgt list in the last ten years has been cut.

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 2011 list cleared in 4 years not 3. 

2013 test of approx 965 cleared in 2.5 Years not counting the Small # of reject Holdovers.

2,700 divided by 4 Years = 675 Each Year need to be made to kill the entire list 4 years from the first person who gets made. 

Unless they Change the Rules and Extend it past 4 years... 

everyone is ASSUMING the job CANNOT have MORE sergeants. Just because there is the list of Sergeant Vacencies does NOT mean they cannot PROMOTE BEYOND that Vacancy Amount. We all knows theres 1 squad in a command WITHOUT A Sergeant. 

1 platoon without a Lieutenant. 

They CAN have a surplus because over time it will drop again anyway. 

Everyone hits the panic button because of the 4 year RULE. What IF that rule is lifted for an Exception.

there are exceptions in the LAW, patrol guide, and Bloomberg went 3 Terms. 

Anything is possible as we see with this list. ALL ASSUMPTIONS of a cut list mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING !

-- Edited by JDMEVO9 on Saturday 30th of December 2017 03:34:59 AM

List wont be cut but it does expire after 4 years.  A bunch of 06 Sgts sued about the LT list expiring and that got chucked out of court in about two seconds.  Could the job make everyone?  Maybe with a perfect storm of retirements, new hires, etc.  I think theyll make around 2000 to 2200 in 4 Years but well see.  The 2011 Sgt list went just over 3.5 years active. They could of got through 2K on that list, but that would Of been about it.  Congrats to all. I saw some real happy people today that picked up points.

I think guys forget a couple of key things about promotions and what factors to consider.

1. BMOC classes are much bigger now than they used to be ever since the Academy moved to Queens. I think the max it can hold is 80 or so. A class of 70-80 is NOT unlikely. I'm not sure how many classes are held on average per year but if the job did 70 bodies for 9 out of 12 months for the next 4 years you will surpass 2500.

2. I know we like to talk about how you need more LTs in order to get Sgts, but ppl forget the constant which are Academy classes. The more cops you hire the more Sgts you will need.

3. The list says 2682 but it really isn't 2682. Several people have already resigned and left the job who are on this list. Other will get jammed up (Hate to say it but this is life and it happens every year). Some will not pass the CARB board.

4. The list will NOT be cut but it will EXPIRE after 4 years. If you look at 2013 list it took  about 3.5 years to promote the entire list but keep in mind there were a lot of classes that had less than 50 people in BMOC.

I think there is a real possibility that the vast majority will get made. The same people saying only 1600 will get made are the same people who didn't believe the list could even be 2600 people. Don't feed into the hype. If you are on this list be grateful.

MBREEZE wrote:

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I think guys forget a couple of key things about promotions and what factors to consider.

1. BMOC classes are much bigger now than they used to be ever since the Academy moved to Queens. I think the max it can hold is 80 or so. A class of 70-80 is NOT unlikely. I'm not sure how many classes are held on average per year but if the job did 70 bodies for 9 out of 12 months for the next 4 years you will surpass 2500.

(The size of the actual class does not matter what matters is how many they need to promote. They could put in a BMOC class of 1000 that just means they wouldn't promote for about 20 months. #1 makes no sense)

2. I know we like to talk about how you need more LTs in order to get Sgts, but ppl forget the constant which are Academy classes. The more cops you hire the more Sgts you will need.

(What you forget is that the people in the academy are replacing people retiring. The job is allotted a certain number of UMOS. When they hire they are replacing someone who left the job. Total headcount on the job is actually down. #2 also makes no sense).

 

3. The list says 2682 but it really isn't 2682. Several people have already resigned and left the job who are on this list. Other will get jammed up (Hate to say it but this is life and it happens every year). Some will not pass the CARB board.

(This is somewhat true. People on this list have resigned/retired/left the job/been promoted. Will that shorten the list significantly? Probably not)

 

4. The list will NOT be cut but it will EXPIRE after 4 years. If you look at 2013 list it took  about 3.5 years to promote the entire list but keep in mind there were a lot of classes that had less than 50 people in BMOC.

(Again with the nonsense class size argument. This is essentially the same as #1)

 

I think there is a real possibility that the vast majority will get made. The same people saying only 1600 will get made are the same people who didn't believe the list could even be 2600 people. Don't feed into the hype. If you are on this list be grateful.

 

(The people saying only 1600 made are using actual relevant data to try to predict the future. The historic average is around 40 promoted a month. I would say their estimate is a little low. 48 x 40 = 1920. Around 1920 will be made.)

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MBREEZE wrote:

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I think guys forget a couple of key things about promotions and what factors to consider.

1. BMOC classes are much bigger now than they used to be ever since the Academy moved to Queens. I think the max it can hold is 80 or so. A class of 70-80 is NOT unlikely. I'm not sure how many classes are held on average per year but if the job did 70 bodies for 9 out of 12 months for the next 4 years you will surpass 2500.

2. I know we like to talk about how you need more LTs in order to get Sgts, but ppl forget the constant which are Academy classes. The more cops you hire the more Sgts you will need.

3. The list says 2682 but it really isn't 2682. Several people have already resigned and left the job who are on this list. Other will get jammed up (Hate to say it but this is life and it happens every year). Some will not pass the CARB board.

4. The list will NOT be cut but it will EXPIRE after 4 years. If you look at 2013 list it took  about 3.5 years to promote the entire list but keep in mind there were a lot of classes that had less than 50 people in BMOC.

I think there is a real possibility that the vast majority will get made. The same people saying only 1600 will get made are the same people who didn't believe the list could even be 2600 people. Don't feed into the hype. If you are on this list be grateful.

 

Classes aren't bigger ... now then they were .. there used to be 100 person classes in the 90's. you can go and read old finest messages. And before they promoted all those guys at the end of the last list for the LT exam some classes were 40-60 not 75-80. 

There was no curve. People werent give 'free' points. The huge list is due to a majority of you guys protesting well.

Did the job purposely give the hardest sgts exams in 2007 and 2008 where both exams combined were 900 people?

Did the job purposely make fair Lt exams in 2003 and 2006 to have the lists cut at 82 and 78 respectively?

The huge lists of the sgt lt and capts exam were directly because of the previous lt exam that had mass cheating and a lawsuit. The job didnt want another promotional exam to make the Daily News and and thus said 'give fair exams.'

-- Edited by brooklynbacon on Sunday 7th of January 2018 12:46:09 PM

Im waiting on these official scorecards so I can see what the actual raw score is. If their was some sort of curve or further score adjustment post TVB then that is complete BS. The test was very fair and it was completely unnecessary. If its just due to throwouts then the TVB was overly generous. 

That test was air tight. Down to the fact that just about every question was a "most correct." The writers created a perfectly fair but tricky exam. There was no way in hell that the TVB pulled 10 or more questions from that test. No way. I know multiple people who got in the low 60s and ended up in the 70s, I know someone who got a 69 that ended up with an 82 and I doubt they were all lucky enough to pick up that many throwouts. The curve is real.

IamTheLaw wrote:

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That test was air tight. Down to the fact that just about every question was a "most correct." The writers created a perfectly fair but tricky exam. There was no way in hell that the TVB pulled 10 or more questions from that test. No way. I know multiple people who got in the low 60s and ended up in the 70s, I know someone who got a 69 that ended up with an 82 and I doubt they were all lucky enough to pick up that many throwouts. The curve is real.

-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Sunday 7th of January 2018 01:57:01 PM

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 Dude, there was absolutely no curve on this exam. You really think DCAS would allow such a thing? That would be a lawsuit waiting to happen. Also the job has no input or say at all when it comes to formulating the list. The tvb (which the job does control) can make recommendations about what questions to throw out but DCAS ultimately makes the call. For the 2015 Lt exam the tvb recommended 5 or so throwouts...you know how many dcas threw out... 000!

Our department swirls with rumors when these lists drop, its always entertaining. The one rumor that did make sense to me, even though its probably not true, but actually should be true IMO, was that the department has plans to completely rewrite the PG (modernize it and take all the outdated crap out). Because this would take some time they created three long lists (Sgt, Lt, Cpt) to be able to draw from a large pool of future supervisors and not have to worry about giving a test while the PG is being rewritten. The reason why I hoped it is true is because 1. I want everybody to be promoted and 2. Our PG is a complete mess. At some point it will have to be rewritten, thats a fact. They cant keep putting bandaids in it in the form of IOs.

At the end of the day nobody really knows. I feel secure with my list number even though Im not as low as I would have liked, but I hope all of us get promoted.

thejimmy wrote:

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Is this the largest Sgt list of all time?

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 Yes.

Theforceisstrongwiththisone wrote:

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And mbreeze all of your points are garbage. Its all about vacancies..the job may over promote by like 50 or 100 sgt but not the 600 or so that will be left floundering when the list expires. If the job were to do such a thing then it would have to lower the headcount for every other rank including PO. If you really think the job is going to do that I have a bridge to sell you. So please stop spreading fake news!

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 Im not spreading"fake news" That was funny btw, i actually really laughed.  Im only stating my opinion.  I never stated it was the gospel.  Just my opinion.  Im fully aware of the vacancy issue.  With the class going in on Monday there are about 13 or so Sgt vacancies now.  Those nunbers need to rise,  i totally agree.  We need the Lt list and Cpt list to be established very soon so that the vacancies can double.  

P.S. There is a certain Dep Commissioner kid on this list and very low on the list at that and if you think for one second that things cant happen to make sure he is promoted,  then you haven't been on the job long enough and you have only seen 1 side of this job. 

The test was not curved that in-basket was a mess on that exam

I know for a fact there was a curve and no the in-basket was not a mess.  It was extremely easy.  I reviewed that entire exam.

WHY WOULD THIS DEPARTMENT OR DCAS CURVE A TEST... WHEN THEY CAN JUST GIVE OTHER TEST DO THE MATH LET SAY 10,000 PEOPLE SIGNED UP FOR THE TEST THE FEE FOR THE TEST WAS 92 DOLLARS I THINK. THE CITY MADE CLOSE TO 1 MILLION DOLLARS WHY WOULD THEY CURVE IT? AND LOSE OUT ON OTHER MILLION DOLLARS YOUR CRAZY IF YOU THINK ITS CURVED THEY THROW OUT 12 QUESTION AT LEAST.