I think your guideline is a good idea but maybe you should start from list # 518 and the month of March just so you don't lose anybody because, your guideline is a little hard to follow.

The only problem with making a list like this is the passover rate that needs/is factored also.

So far 444 people have been promoted but for some reason your chart says the list won't reach 440 until April. 2013......

Where is the one you posted?

On May 29, 75 people were promoted. Where do you get 40 for June?

He averaged it out. 40 a month.

I redid the posts I had on the other thread and condensed and updated them.

Here is what we know thus far:

339 on the 2007 list
671 on the 2008 list
783 on the 2009 list
and 444 promoted on the 2011 list thus far.
Giving a total of roughly 2237 promoted (you have to figure some were not promoted for whatever reason ie jam up, already a sgt, but the number shouldn't be too far off)

From what I read the first class off the '07 list was 01/01/08.
Jan 2008 to now is 61 months...
Which averages to about 37 (2237/61=36.67) a month, for all available data.
List of 1663 people / 37 = 45 months.

So even considering the years when the lists moved slow, this entire list should get promoted, according to the historical mathematical precedent.

Using that math and checking it against the current list...

Recall that the last list was exhausted in March of last year, giving us 11 new months.
11x37=407 meaning the pevious tests history would predict there were 407 people made off this list thus far.
Actual people made: 444 (according to you guys, I kinda stopped paying attention).
Statistical error of 37 or about 8 percent.
Given the average about 360 additional potential sergeants should get made before the end of the year.

Good job ohnoes, you are spot on with the numbers and I would agree with you IF the list does last say 45-48 months, but with an exam already coming in October, I am having doubts whether or not the the list will stay active for that long.

Lets say they expedite the Oct 2013 list to a quick 6 months for list establishment, that means at the fastest its out by April 2014 (6 months) which would also mean IF that happens, the list would die after only 24 months after establishment? Lets say they wait a year? Then its 30 months? 45-48 months which is what it may take if this rate continues means they would have to hold up the October 2013 list for nearly 2 years before establishing a list? Could happen, but I doubt it.

Looks like a few hundred people will likely die on the current list unless they hold the new list for about 2 years...

I'm not going to lie, I actually like math and statistics.

PGIMB I agree I'm not sure the list will hold out 45 months, I had done this math originally for myself to attempt to predict when I would get promoted, it was pretty close. I personally have no opinion if whether the whole list will get made or not.

Anyone can pm me and I'll apply the math to them or explain it more concisely.

their planning on making this new sgt exam (Oct 2013) effective in april of 2014. thats what i got from 1pp as of friday. lets hope they keep flying thru this list

Ondeeair, I am asking for YOUR OPINION. If this list DOES DIE what list # would u think it ends at?

i hope they promote everyone. maybe high 900's or low 1000's is my opinion. they plan on making new list effective in april 2014

Well I got one less guy to worry. The "cannibal cop" is high on this list. lol

My Conservative Assumptions

1) ALL BACKFILLS GETTING MADE

2) March '13 taking just 30 BACKFILLS

3) July '13 taking the remaining 34 BACKFILLS

4) Aug '13 AND Dec '13 as PROJECTED OFF MONTHS

5) The remaining qualifying months being 45 per class

6) And March '14 being the last month of our list

My guess is this list dies at 953