WILL THIS LIST LAST 3 or 4 YEARS?
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It depends. No one really know's when the next captains exam will be. Everything is just speculation.
I wouldnt call it speculation more like an educated guess lol. First class from the 2010 capt exam when in April of last year so they've promoted approximately 98 people including a small amount of passovers in 1 1/2 years. There are currently 30 remaining on the list with 63 from the new list for a total of 93. At the current rate that we can safely guess that's another 1 1/2 years of promotion. Exam must be giving sometime in 2014 or late 2013 unless they stop promoting capts for some reason.
Maybe this will put it into perspective; I was very recently present at educational tracking to get my credits in order. My list number in high 500's and the Sgt. that runs that unit made it very clear in no uncertain terms, that she felt that I would be taking the upcoming Captain exam. Also she stated this on her own with out me asking; truth be told I had thought that I was going to miss this upcoming Captain exam, but she seems to think otherwise, alas only time will tell but the out look is positive.
-- Edited by Centurion on Friday 23rd of November 2012 06:39:16 PM
Its really not insane if you break it down. They will have promoted around 150 by December; thats an average of 300 a year; in 18 months that would get us into the low 600's. There are already plans for a 2014 Lt exam, I know for a fact they have begun making a list of current Lt's to write the next exam. I also had a first hand conversation with Captain Mifsud in which he stated there is going to be a 2014 Lt exam. Also over the next two years there are 10,000 UMOS eligible to retire, the general rule has been that every 1 in 20 UMOS are Lt's; thats 500 potential spots right there. Thats not counting all the Lt's that are currently at or well over the 20 year mark. And as I stated earlier educational tracking has stated to me that they feel that with a list # in the high 500's, I will promoted in under two years and taking the next Captain exam. Educational tracking would be in a pretty good position to know as they are in direct contact with EMD/OMAP, since EMD has to contact them to make sure that people meet the educational requirements. Again nothing is set in stone, and i'm a realist but if you take all things into consideration its not insane at all.
I think your math is a little off. At the current rate they'll be roughly around 450's in approximately 18 months (assuming the rate remains steady at 300 a year). I don't see the list getting close to 600 in 18 months unless the rate of promotions increase.
Take this conversation to captain board, I'm more interested on the next round of promotions...
This conversation is directly linked to the rate at which we will all be promoted to Lieutenant.Only time will tell, my point is that there seems to be a general consensus among multiple unconnected sources that this list will move far more quickly than previous Lieutentant lists.