Classes going in almost every month at 100 a pop with later classes going in at 65 - 75 a pop.
May = first class
If it's consecutive bmoc classes for the next 8 months at 65 a pop.
We have 520 promotions for the year.
I'm 99 percent sure bmoc will actually be 100 promotions for the first and possibley second class with reductions to 70 promotions a class thereafter.
200 for the first 2 months
420 for the remainder of the 6 months
That would allow you to reach list number 620 by the end of the year for 8 months of promoting.
Don't get excited.. I think they won't promote every month. I'm guessing 2 months will be skipped this year. Final guess is that the list will go to 450 - 500 this year.
Point being that between 1/3 and 1/4 of the list will be done this year. Which leads me back to my original point that the whole list will be made. And that the first 500 guys should be excited about this year. Congrats everyone!!!
bigfoot45 said
Apr 16, 2012
I think we all like the optimism (except the trolls), but where are you getting this info from?
spartan85 said
Apr 16, 2012
From sources that have been right in the past very recently. I'm Sure others will concur with the information I posted (except trolls). It's also more of an educated guess as opposed to just pure optimism. I feel as though I have given a likely scenario. This isn't set in stone of course. Take it for what it's worth. If we reach close to 500 names this year(which would make me very happy) then those who are in the 1600's can breathe easy knowing they have a full 3 years and 4 months to promote the remainder of 1100 people. 500 names every 8 months will finish the list in 26 months. I feel this is possible but it's to unlikely. I'm sticking to my original posts of a 3 1/2 year list.
RogainSgt said
Apr 16, 2012
You speculation is all fine and dandy and most assuredly welcomed but it is unrealistic for one reason only. There is no plan for a new Sgts exam anytime in the future and everyone at the Police academy and OMAP say the same. We are quite possibly looking at an October 2013 Exam at the earliest. That being said it makes no sense that this list should be wiped out expeditiously especially when there are no intentions for a replacement exam until later next year. Yes, everyone wants 500 names to be reached by the end of this year but that's is purely fantasy. If I'd follow your train of thought then this list would quite possibly be done by the end of 2013. It would stand to reason that there would be no new list to feed off until April of 2013. NO EXISTING LIST TO FEED OFF FOR 4 months....UNHEARD OF!
Let us stop with the over zealous estimates and just relax. We will all get a chance to get made so what is the rush?
Team J said
Apr 16, 2012
spartan85 wrote:
Classes going in almost every month at 100 a pop with later classes going in at 65 - 75 a pop. May = first class If it's consecutive bmoc classes for the next 8 months at 65 a pop. We have 520 promotions for the year. I'm 99 percent sure bmoc will actually be 100 promotions for the first and possibley second class with reductions to 70 promotions a class thereafter. 200 for the first 2 months 420 for the remainder of the 6 months That would allow you to reach list number 620 by the end of the year for 8 months of promoting. Don't get excited.. I think they won't promote every month. I'm guessing 2 months will be skipped this year. Final guess is that the list will go to 450 - 500 this year. Point being that between 1/3 and 1/4 of the list will be done this year. Which leads me back to my original point that the whole list will be made. And that the first 500 guys should be excited about this year. Congrats everyone!!!
100 for first two classes? Where is this info coming from? You said your 99 percent sure ... so that sounds almost confirmed
Warden2Sgt said
Apr 16, 2012
Spartan, your boasts are outlandish.
diseased_genitals said
Apr 16, 2012
I tend to agree Warden.
spartan85 said
Apr 17, 2012
All I can say is wait and see gentlemen. Only time can either prove or disprove me. But it's looking real good for list to reach close to 500 this year as of now. Good luck to all.
And if you followed my train of thought the list would be finished in about 3 1/2 years like i stated. I don't think monthly promotions would continue next year.. Once again good luck to you all and we shall see who's right.
PatrolGuideismyBible said
Apr 26, 2012
I am not saying the speculation of the OP isn't possible, it is very possible, but this list breezing through might not be as sure a thing as many on here are predicting. Are there really that many openings for Sgt's? The economy is still bad for jobs, but good for wall street stocks. I can see more and more people staying past 20 years. Also the Lieutenant's Exam was a complete debacle and I have heard as few as 150 people passed on the proposed answer key. My point? When that Lt's list comes out and it is very small, then even less Sgt spots will open up.
You need retirements and promotions to open up Sgt spots, less and less of those two occurrences are happening due to a poor job market and no Lieutenant promotions now or in the near future and also possibly a small list...
FidelisAdMortem said
Apr 26, 2012
75 a pop. According to LT today at phase I they cannot handle more than 75 at a time.
Team J said
Apr 26, 2012
FidelisAdMortem wrote:
75 a pop. According to LT today at phase I they cannot handle more than 75 at a time.
confirmed
Knight3100 said
Apr 26, 2012
Hey Fidelis are they saying back to back classes for may,june,july.
FidelisAdMortem said
Apr 26, 2012
May def. Looks like June. No class July. Then classes every month to end of year.
Knight3100 said
Apr 26, 2012
Cool thankss Fidelis
Queens Marine21 said
Apr 26, 2012
Thanks for the info...any reason given for skipping July? Not that it really matters. just seems sort of random
spartan85 said
Apr 26, 2012
They usually skip summer months... I don't know why. But just skipping July is aewsome. 6 more bmocs this year would be aewsome.
FidelisAdMortem said
Apr 26, 2012
LT told me on the side after I asked a question for myself that its b/c of annual vacation picks during the summer, not sure if he meant future sgts or those who are in charge of the class formation/training.
spartan85 said
Apr 27, 2012
List is up to 119 already with passovers. That's only 1 class in. 500 seems definite this year!! Everyone stay out of trouble!!!! No CCRB CDs or nothing!!
TransitSucks said
Apr 27, 2012
Maybe they skipping july cuz there is going to be a big recruit class in july. Im hearing 1400
FidelisAdMortem said
Apr 27, 2012
Good point, but wouldnt that also affect every month those recruits are in?
spartan85 said
Apr 27, 2012
Historically big recruit classes have meant for frequent bmoc classes
96Times6 said
May 21, 2012
Now that we have a class in for May and a class for June pretty much comfirmed. Any adjustment or reaffirmation to this? I'm really hoping that they get to near 500 by the end of this year.
queensfinest said
Jul 19, 2012
Spart you might be on the money.just thought id bring back this thread
spartan85 said
Jul 19, 2012
We shall see in a few months. I'm confident with passovers it will reach close to 500 if not even surpass it if no months are skipped
Semp1 said
Jul 19, 2012
-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 30th of November 2012 02:47:15 AM
Doggieloverwoof said
Jul 19, 2012
In your opinion guys, when do you think they'll reach low 600's?
Semp1 said
Jul 19, 2012
January to April.
spartan85 said
Aug 18, 2012
Looks like I'm going to be right about this one... . And I'm right about the list not being cut!!
Semp1 said
Aug 18, 2012
I agree. I think they're going to get to 650 by the end of the first 12 months in April. But I've never doubted that.
REDALERT11 said
Aug 18, 2012
Keep it moving...
Semp1 said
Nov 30, 2012
Good prediction Spartan...
-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 30th of November 2012 02:48:41 AM
Semp1 said
Nov 30, 2012
Come next month the list will be at 520 minimum and that means effectively over 400total promoted. He never said "promoted". He said the list. And his guess was on point. And let's not forget where the list really was intended on being if it was not for the Hurricane last month.
-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 30th of November 2012 03:08:14 PM
RMP6969 said
Nov 30, 2012
Not to take anything away from you spartan but there are 109 passovers. Before you knock me I'm on your side. This whole list will get made.
AhouseRocker said
Dec 1, 2012
List is moving nicely, for those who are about to, or will be in the future, it looks good for you all.
EDAYKING said
Dec 5, 2012
Great guess, right on the money.
scheduleB_magnet said
Dec 8, 2012
Can anyone guess when they will reach 670-700? (Including the 40 or so that are eligible in January). I'm thinking at the earliest March but probably May, if they put a class in every month. Thanks.
Doggieloverwoof said
Dec 8, 2012
scheduleB_magnet wrote:
Can anyone guess when they will reach 670-700? (Including the 40 or so that are eligible in January). I'm thinking at the earliest March but probably May, if they put a class in every month. Thanks.
If they keep promoting at the same rate I would guess March.
scheduleB_magnet said
Dec 8, 2012
I'm trying to plan a vacation but I guess I should hold off then?
Doggieloverwoof said
Dec 8, 2012
scheduleB_magnet wrote:
I'm trying to plan a vacation but I guess I should hold off then?
If it's around that time then I would if I was you.....
scheduleB_magnet said
Dec 8, 2012
Yes it is. I guess that's a good problem to have right? LOL. Thanks for your response. Good luck if you haven't been promoted yet.
Doggieloverwoof said
Dec 8, 2012
scheduleB_magnet wrote:
Yes it is. I guess that's a good problem to have right? LOL. Thanks for your response. Good luck if you haven't been promoted yet.
It sure is! I should go soon. 610s range here.v we might b in the same bmoc lol
I think we all like the optimism (except the trolls), but where are you getting this info from?
I feel as though I have given a likely scenario. This isn't set in stone of course. Take it for what it's worth. If we reach close to 500 names this year(which would make me very happy) then those who are in the 1600's can breathe easy knowing they have a full 3 years and 4 months to promote the remainder of 1100 people. 500 names every 8 months will finish the list in 26 months. I feel this is possible but it's to unlikely. I'm sticking to my original posts of a 3 1/2 year list.
Let us stop with the over zealous estimates and just relax. We will all get a chance to get made so what is the rush?
100 for first two classes? Where is this info coming from? You said your 99 percent sure ... so that sounds almost confirmed
And if you followed my train of thought the list would be finished in about 3 1/2 years like i stated. I don't think monthly promotions would continue next year.. Once again good luck to you all and we shall see who's right.
You need retirements and promotions to open up Sgt spots, less and less of those two occurrences are happening due to a poor job market and no Lieutenant promotions now or in the near future and also possibly a small list...
confirmed
-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 30th of November 2012 02:47:15 AM
-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 30th of November 2012 02:48:41 AM
-- Edited by Semp1 on Friday 30th of November 2012 03:08:14 PM
If they keep promoting at the same rate I would guess March.
If it's around that time then I would if I was you.....
It sure is! I should go soon. 610s range here.v we might b in the same bmoc lol