Thanks to the info from that link, here are some more figures to mull over:
2014 YTD - 175 total, rate of 35 per calendar month, avg class size of 44 (4 classes total)
2013 - 405 total, rate of 34 per calendar month, avg class size of 58 (7 classes total)
2012 - 510 total, rate of 43 per calendar month, avg class size of 57 (9 classes total)
2011 - 465 total, rate of 39 per calendar month, avg class size of 66 (7 classes total)
The class size isn't so important when you're trying to figure out how long until you get promoted. It's the rate that matters. So what do these numbers tell us?
First, that at minimum the department promotes at the rate of 34 per calendar month. We are currently at 1106 and it is May. By December, another 7 months will have gone by, and at the rate it's going, that equates to another 238 names, bringing the list to 1344, give or take. And that is worst case scenario.
Second, that the average class size right now for 2014 YTD is only 44. Compare that to the previous years and you can see a big difference. What this means is that we've had small classes right now and therefore:
1) we are due for some BIG classes coming up AND a few more down months (2-4 more down months) OR 2) we will have small classes, but very FEW down months.
This is all assuming that the promotion rate doesn't drop off of course.
-- Edited by bngeek on Sunday 18th of May 2014 03:02:59 AM
brat4914 said
May 18, 2014
When are you people going to learn there is no pattern they go by
Scammer045 said
May 18, 2014
Lol so much pointless effort on trying to predict the future sure is funny. It's crazy what impatience does to people.
Nyjoe84 said
May 18, 2014
Lol that took way too much time to do. I don't beilve there is a special pattern either
bngeek said
May 18, 2014
Uhm that took all of five minutes to do, maybe ten, including the time it took to type the post... people shouldn't assume that everyone works at the same pace.
But I agree, there isn't a pattern, but it's still nice to see I'd like to think.
-- Edited by bngeek on Sunday 18th of May 2014 05:28:12 PM
Jman said
May 18, 2014
If you guys spent as much time studying as you do whining on rising star and looking at meaningless patterns,
You would've been promoted off this list a year ago.
queensfinest said
May 18, 2014
Jman wrote:
If you guys spent as much time studying as you do whining on rising star and looking at meaningless patterns, You would've been promoted off this list a year ago.
Lmfao your right
ChargesandSpecs said
May 18, 2014
It's not a pattern. It's using stats to come to ones own conclusion. Like science using a hypothesis. As ridiculous as it may seem on a forum for cops. But then again one could argue that the depahhhhtment is even more ridiculous than this forum, no?
ManHands said
May 19, 2014
ChargesandSpecs wrote:
It's not a pattern. It's using stats to come to ones own conclusion. Like science using a hypothesis. As ridiculou. We are as it may seem on a forum foit has cops. But then again one could argue that the depahhhhtment is even more ridiculous than this forum, no?
well said. No one is saying there is a pattern but this type of math is used for all kinds of things to determine probability. Nothing wrong with estimating especially when it deals with the pace of your career.
queensfinest said
May 20, 2014
Well My friends there WILL be a class next month i dont know how many.
2Hashmarks said
May 20, 2014
I hope your right. I should be in it. Thanks for the info. Been checking this site 5 times a day for updates!
20n0ut said
May 20, 2014
Less than 30 names away. Any speculation on possible start dates for a June class. I know I'm way ahead of myself on this one.
Semp1 said
May 20, 2014
queensfinest wrote:
Well My friends there WILL be a class next month i dont know how many.
I actually heard the same thing. Unknown number though. Who knows in the end. LoL.
Nyjoe84 said
May 20, 2014
I would only beilve this if Brat confirms.
Wanabmade said
May 21, 2014
53 for June. As per Sgt. Keeney
Su Madre 24 said
May 21, 2014
Wannabe when you getting your assignments.
scheduleB_magnet said
May 21, 2014
Next Friday.
Wanabmade said
May 21, 2014
Yea next fri
Nyjoe84 said
May 21, 2014
When is the graduation ?
scheduleB_magnet said
May 21, 2014
Monday the 2nd.
Nyjoe84 said
May 21, 2014
So when u think the finest will come down next week ?
2Hashmarks said
May 21, 2014
53 puts me in the June class
2Hashmarks said
May 21, 2014
53 puts me in the June class
JudgeDredd said
May 21, 2014
53, looks like July for me
Semp1 said
May 21, 2014
Just heard the same
20n0ut said
May 21, 2014
Any word on what the potential start day is.
scheduleB_magnet said
May 21, 2014
That's the wild card. If they put in a class the same day all the promotions are (June 2nd), the finest would come down a week from today on the 28th. But know one knows. They could realistically take a week off and start on the 9th, and promote people on July 3rd, and some people might be working their first day on the 4th at their new commands, as they tend to do around holiday promotions. If that's the case then the finest would come down on June 4th. Time will tell!
Mattinglyfan said
May 21, 2014
Wow that would put me about 50 out for the possible July class.. I have a feeling its gonna be a nail biter.
Semp1 said
May 21, 2014
I'm gonna guess that the bmoc report date will be June 2. Promotions should not affect it. Although bmoc had a week off between promotions with the current class.
Chronic A said
May 21, 2014
I'm in
2Hashmarks said
May 21, 2014
Confirmed 53 but the start date is still up in the air. 2nd or 9th
queensfinest said
May 21, 2014
Nyjoe84 wrote:
I would only beilve this if Brat confirms.
You should have some faith in other people as well
2Hashmarks said
May 21, 2014
Some of us have never given bad info. If you look back 2 years I was 100% accurate with the throw outs
Nyjoe84 said
May 22, 2014
Im not doubting anyone, just saying i would feel more comfortable when Brat tells us thats all. Im pretty sure you all get accurate info as well.
Zeph said
May 22, 2014
If you're told the info came from Sgt Keeney, there is nothing to doubt about.
bluecollar said
May 22, 2014
Sgt. Keeney just called my office and said 53 sgts and 38 lts. She didn't have an exact date for my LT to go in to do his speech so I guess the start date is still up in the air.
brat4914 said
May 22, 2014
53 sgts to BMOC on June 2
bluecollar said
May 22, 2014
Thanks brat
Nyjoe84 said
May 22, 2014
Thank you Brat
2Hashmarks said
May 22, 2014
Brat Rocks!!
redcons2 said
May 22, 2014
Come on July then!
twntynout said
May 22, 2014
..
-- Edited by twntynout on Friday 23rd of May 2014 09:56:01 AM
Semp1 said
May 22, 2014
twntynout wrote:
Brat, did you hear LT's as well?
LTs get promoted up front on June 2nd so obviously their report date is the 3rd to BMOC.
Chronic A said
May 22, 2014
Im in
Chronic A said
May 22, 2014
Thnk u bluecollar
bngeek said
May 22, 2014
Thanks Brat!
Nyjoe84 said
May 22, 2014
Now the next big question if the class would be going in June 2 , when will the Finest be coming down ? Im guessing Wed Thur ?
bluecollar said
May 23, 2014
.
-- Edited by bluecollar on Friday 23rd of May 2014 04:04:27 PM
bluecollar said
May 23, 2014
Chronic A wrote:
Thnk u bluecollar
You're welcome. Congrats on getting in. Good luck.
Thanks to the info from that link, here are some more figures to mull over:
2014 YTD - 175 total, rate of 35 per calendar month, avg class size of 44 (4 classes total)
2013 - 405 total, rate of 34 per calendar month, avg class size of 58 (7 classes total)
2012 - 510 total, rate of 43 per calendar month, avg class size of 57 (9 classes total)
2011 - 465 total, rate of 39 per calendar month, avg class size of 66 (7 classes total)
The class size isn't so important when you're trying to figure out how long until you get promoted. It's the rate that matters. So what do these numbers tell us?
First, that at minimum the department promotes at the rate of 34 per calendar month. We are currently at 1106 and it is May. By December, another 7 months will have gone by, and at the rate it's going, that equates to another 238 names, bringing the list to 1344, give or take. And that is worst case scenario.
Second, that the average class size right now for 2014 YTD is only 44. Compare that to the previous years and you can see a big difference. What this means is that we've had small classes right now and therefore:
1) we are due for some BIG classes coming up AND a few more down months (2-4 more down months)
OR
2) we will have small classes, but very FEW down months.
This is all assuming that the promotion rate doesn't drop off of course.
-- Edited by bngeek on Sunday 18th of May 2014 03:02:59 AM
When are you people going to learn there is no pattern they go by
Lol so much pointless effort on trying to predict the future sure is funny. It's crazy what impatience does to people.
Uhm that took all of five minutes to do, maybe ten, including the time it took to type the post... people shouldn't assume that everyone works at the same pace.
But I agree, there isn't a pattern, but it's still nice to see I'd like to think.
-- Edited by bngeek on Sunday 18th of May 2014 05:28:12 PM
You would've been promoted off this list a year ago.
Lmfao your right
well said. No one is saying there is a pattern but this type of math is used for all kinds of things to determine probability. Nothing wrong with estimating especially when it deals with the pace of your career.
Well My friends there WILL be a class next month i dont know how many.
I actually heard the same thing. Unknown number though. Who knows in the end. LoL.
You should have some faith in other people as well
53 sgts to BMOC on June 2
..
-- Edited by twntynout on Friday 23rd of May 2014 09:56:01 AM
LTs get promoted up front on June 2nd so obviously their report date is the 3rd to BMOC.
.
-- Edited by bluecollar on Friday 23rd of May 2014 04:04:27 PM
You're welcome. Congrats on getting in. Good luck.