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Post Info TOPIC: Promotion Frequency Rates Based on 2014 Captain's List


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Promotion Frequency Rates Based on 2014 Captain's List


Disclaimer: I'm not a quantitative mathematician and some of these numbers might not be exact. This is from the data I quickly gathered and the best I could put together.

Between 10/30/2015 and 07/28/2017, a period of 1.75 years, 103 captains were promoted from the 2014 Captain's List. This is a rate of 58.86 per year. If the same rate held for our list that would bring us to list #235.44 in four years. Some good news for those towards the bottom of our list though. Due to several factors there were no captains promoted at all between 10/30/2015 & 06/24/2016 or between 11/22/2016 & 06/09/2017. The majority promoted from the 2014 list were made in fairly quick succession during periods of regular captain promotion classes. Here's how it breaks down:

Date of Class         Promoted              List # Range

10/30/2015                   9                           1 - 11

06/24/2016                  25                         12 - 40

10/28/2016                  13                         41 - 52

11/22/2016                  12                         54 - 68

06/09/2017                  14                         69 - 83

06/30/2017                  12                         85 - 96

07/28/2017                  18                         98 - 118 

Again, there could be some minor errors since I'm not a math whiz, and I'm not addressing passover numbers in the range, though I am counting them in the people promoted each class. Not a terrible rate, even with those two very long breaks in promotions. If we remove the first class in 2015 and only factor the one year range for the rest of the list, even with the long break in the first half of 2017 92 captains were promoted in approximately one year. That rate gives around 276 promotions after three years or 368 after four years. That doesn't mean we can expect this best case scenario, but it does show that 266 could definitely be promoted in four years. Even the 2014 list promotion rate, with a year total of no promotions between the two freezes, had a rate that gave us 235 promotions after four years, hopefully we can expect an even slightly better condition for us.

Good luck to everyone, hope we all make it.



-- Edited by sixmonthwonder on Saturday 21st of July 2018 06:27:45 AM



-- Edited by sixmonthwonder on Saturday 21st of July 2018 06:34:54 AM



-- Edited by sixmonthwonder on Saturday 21st of July 2018 06:36:20 AM



-- Edited by sixmonthwonder on Saturday 21st of July 2018 06:51:30 AM



-- Edited by sixmonthwonder on Saturday 21st of July 2018 07:35:43 AM

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Wow. Good job

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Thanks brother and congrats.

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Thanks for taking the time to do the research. Hopefully the rate holds.

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I think someone had posted previously that the total of the 2012 2013 and 2014 exams were promoted in about 4 years and there were around 245 names. Can anyone confirm?



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Thanks same to you



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Current rate is more like 47 to 50 Lt to Capt promotions a year. The rank is much younger than it was even 5 years ago. A lot of guys hit the promotional exam wave and made capt with 10 years on. As long as the list gets cut b4 centurion gets made...all is well.

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And before I'm attacked by the 100haters who passed this exam..im not hoping the list cuts get. Many of people who were in the trenches fighting with the 9 heroes are in the 200 range. I truely hope they all get made!

But my point is that all three recent exam list (sgt, lt, and capt) would have to be extended by at least a year to safely squeeze in everyone on the list. I think i saw someone posting a way this could be done through dcas or the job. Thats not my expertise but im sure some one on this forum knows a way it can be done.

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Theforceisstrongwiththisone wrote:

Current rate is more like 47 to 50 Lt to Capt promotions a year. The rank is much younger than it was even 5 years ago. A lot of guys hit the promotional exam wave and made capt with 10 years on. As long as the list gets cut b4 centurion gets made...all is well.


 Back this up with facts, otherwise it hot air. 



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bigfoot45 wrote:
Theforceisstrongwiththisone wrote:

Current rate is more like 47 to 50 Lt to Capt promotions a year. The rank is much younger than it was even 5 years ago. A lot of guys hit the promotional exam wave and made capt with 10 years on. As long as the list gets cut b4 centurion gets made...all is well.


 Back this up with facts, otherwise it hot air. 


 Or better yet, ban him! Hes only looking to stir the pot. He is useless.



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Tommy Salami wrote:
bigfoot45 wrote:
Theforceisstrongwiththisone wrote:

Current rate is more like 47 to 50 Lt to Capt promotions a year. The rank is much younger than it was even 5 years ago. A lot of guys hit the promotional exam wave and made capt with 10 years on. As long as the list gets cut b4 centurion gets made...all is well.


 Back this up with facts, otherwise it hot air. 


 Or better yet, ban him! Hes only looking to stir the pot. He is useless.


 Banning him will not work. He will make up another user name and start spreading nonsense as he has done for years. Weak-force is the same person as the not-so-legendary-ondeeair.

He needs to be completely ignored. 



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You block the IP. Cant make a new name so easy.



-- Edited by yougonow on Sunday 22nd of July 2018 10:14:44 PM

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Theforceisstrongwiththisone wrote:

Current rate is more like 47 to 50 Lt to Capt promotions a year. The rank is much younger than it was even 5 years ago. A lot of guys hit the promotional exam wave and made capt with 10 years on. As long as the list gets cut b4 centurion gets made...all is well.


There isn't is a solid "current rate" beyond what's posted here. The last person on the 2014 list (#118) was promoted a year ago. Other than a few of the holdovers trickling in while the job waited for this list, I don't know what rate you're referring to. A year ago was the last time there was a real active list that the job was promoting from. Any data after that isn't really pertinent as the list was already burned through in July of 2017.



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Based off the size of the current list, would need about 66 Captain promotions per year to get through everyone in 4 years. Should happen with absolutely no one dying on an expired list based solely on promotion rates.

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Can't see everyone not making it. Although they made the rank a tad bit more appealing, it's not like 500 Lt's a running to take the test. Especially if u factor in the pay cut, etc, it's just going to run the entire 4 yrs unless there's an exodus in the near future...

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25isthenew20 wrote:

Can't see everyone not making it. Although they made the rank a tad bit more appealing, it's not like 500 Lt's a running to take the test. Especially if u factor in the pay cut, etc, it's just going to run the entire 4 yrs unless there's an exodus in the near future...


Actually 482 LT's sat for the captain exam so its definitely close to 500. Every Lt. or soon to be Lt. that I've spoken to that passed the 2017 LT exam is looking to take the next Captain exam. It's a new young generation of officers who want to move up the ranks. Plus who does not want to make 180K just walking in the door and working for 8hrs with a take home car plus the Capts contract will be up in Oct.. You don't want to wait until they make the rank so appealing to then decide to take the exam because by then you'll  probably have 800 Lts sitting for the exam and you will have to compete much harder and take the risk of dying on the list. Look at the sergeants and lieutenants exams now, this is going to be the norm now with these huge lists. For those of you who are young on the job just start deciding what you want to do with your career now. Because there is not going to be that many opportunities to take exams like when I got on the job is what i'm saying. Good Luck to everyone on your endeavors. Like the great Mike said "A promotion will pay off for you and your family for the rest of your life." 



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Tier 3 is quickly becoming a majority of the job. It is much harder for Tier 3 to boost their pension with OT. They have known since the beginning that the only way to maximize the pension is to make Captain.



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sixmonthwonder wrote:
Theforceisstrongwiththisone wrote:

Current rate is more like 47 to 50 Lt to Capt promotions a year. The rank is much younger than it was even 5 years ago. A lot of guys hit the promotional exam wave and made capt with 10 years on. As long as the list gets cut b4 centurion gets made...all is well.


There isn't is a solid "current rate" beyond what's posted here. The last person on the 2014 list (#118) was promoted a year ago. Other than a few of the holdovers trickling in while the job waited for this list, I don't know what rate you're referring to. A year ago was the last time there was a real active list that the job was promoting from. Any data after that isn't really pertinent as the list was already burned through in July of 2017.


 This is true, there is no "rate."  The Department has been shrinking the Capt. rank through attrition the past few years, and increasing the ranks of DI, Inspector and Deputy Chief accordingly.  Now that the desired # has been reached, we may see an actual rate of promotions moving forward.



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karatekid wrote:
25isthenew20 wrote:

Can't see everyone not making it. Although they made the rank a tad bit more appealing, it's not like 500 Lt's a running to take the test. Especially if u factor in the pay cut, etc, it's just going to run the entire 4 yrs unless there's an exodus in the near future...


Actually 482 LT's sat for the captain exam so its definitely close to 500. Every Lt. or soon to be Lt. that I've spoken to that passed the 2017 LT exam is looking to take the next Captain exam. It's a new young generation of officers who want to move up the ranks. Plus who does not want to make 180K just walking in the door and working for 8hrs with a take home car plus the Capts contract will be up in Oct.. You don't want to wait until they make the rank so appealing to then decide to take the exam because by then you'll  probably have 800 Lts sitting for the exam and you will have to compete much harder and take the risk of dying on the list. Look at the sergeants and lieutenants exams now, this is going to be the norm now with these huge lists. For those of you who are young on the job just start deciding what you want to do with your career now. Because there is not going to be that many opportunities to take exams like when I got on the job is what i'm saying. Good Luck to everyone on your endeavors. Like the great Mike said "A promotion will pay off for you and your family for the rest of your life." 


 Good point...tier 3 ppl are taking the tests and will make for larger lists and fewer tests.  Lists will run the full four years so you have to do well 



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