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Post Info TOPIC: Will this list be cut?
List cut off? [114 vote(s)]

No cut off. Everyone will get made.
24.6%
80 and down cut.
16.7%
75 and down cut.
58.8%


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Will this list be cut?


2700 people puts us in unprecedented terrority. So what do you guys think? Id say top 2000 is good to go.



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2011 list had 1700 about. All made it (who cleared) in three years. No Sgt list in the last ten years has been cut.

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3rdtimetheCharm wrote:

2011 list had 1700 about. All made it (who cleared) in three years. No Sgt list in the last ten years has been cut.


 Very true but 2700 is a huge difference compared to 1700. Its not even in the same league.



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Guys. The list dropped a few hours ago. There are a lot of people who got a very nice Christmas surprise. Let them enjoy it for a few minutes before we start guessing if this list will be cut or not. Let them enjoy this great news.

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There are alot of good people who will make amazing bosses deep down there in the 2000's, its scary, but I agree with tier3scum. Let them enjoy it, please. Its been a long hard road for alot of us. Let us enjoy the simple fact that this is over.

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Sometimes you win some, Sometimes you lose some.



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Getting cut

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The job finally did the right thing. Respect the time, the more experience the better. A good test taker doesn't always produce a good boss

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Before they went to the 70 pass rate it used to be the top 1750 plus ties. Those lists would last the full 4 years. It doesn't look good for anyone over 1800 on this list. Plus people aren't retiring at 20 like they used to anymore. it's 25-27 years and out now. This will be a slow go. Too bad since I have friends in the 2000 range. The only way this list could move quickly is if it's top heavy with senior people and they retire within the next 2-3 years. Other than that I'd be shocked if they even crack 2000

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I got a 79... cut? Who knows. I'm 1650-1675 range.



-- Edited by yougonow on Saturday 30th of December 2017 01:12:25 AM

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the board has an archive of all the conversations. It looks like the 2007 list had only 329 people on it and 2008 had 671.

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Just my opinion based on my experience, top 2,000 are a lock.  Starts getting risky after that. 



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I feel bad for those who didnt pass or have enough time to take (2year people) itll be about 3 years before next exam

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Sgthopefull2017 wrote:

the board has an archive of all the conversations. It looks like the 2007 list had only 329 people on it and 2008 had 671.


 Those are the two hardest sgts exams ever given. You cant compare a fair exam with throwouts to those. Its like apples and airplanes.



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cop


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I dont believe they can cut it without a lawsuit. i think they would have to amend the notice of examination. With that said I think 2400 will be made if not all. Also a lot are ready to leave just waiting for final pay increase along with no active list.



-- Edited by cop on Saturday 30th of December 2017 01:50:04 AM

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brooklynbacon wrote:
Sgthopefull2017 wrote:

the board has an archive of all the conversations. It looks like the 2007 list had only 329 people on it and 2008 had 671.


 Those are the two hardest sgts exams ever given. You cant compare a fair exam with throwouts to those. Its like apples and airplanes.


 Needs of the department are needs of the department. Doesn't matter if a test is easy or hard, they can't promote if they don't have the spots. the relevance here is it took about 11 months to go through the 2007 list and roughly a year and a half to go through 671 names. 671 x 3 will only put you at list 2000, and that's already 4.5 years out if they promote at the same rate. 



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somebody posted a chart here of average yearly promotions to sgt. risingstarpromotion.activeboard.com/t59860058/sgt-promotions-on-a-monthlyyearly-basis-dating-to-maybe-the-/

 

2014 374 promoted

2013 405

2012 510

2011 465.

I don't have the 2015, 2016, or 2017 numbers.. if anyone has them please add to this. Anyway, even if we take 2012 that had 510 sergeants promoted in one year, if you multiply that by 4 years that's only 2,040 names. 



-- Edited by Sgthopefull2017 on Saturday 30th of December 2017 01:56:16 AM

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Wtf you talking about? Law suit? For what? Jesus

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Lp


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Am in the 2200s... will they cute idk. Its a REAL possibility. However, today, i am having a few drinks and celebrating being on the list. Lets hope everyone gets made! Congrats to all.

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It was 3 years and a couple of months to go through 1650(factor in the approximate 50 passovers, give or take)...id say 1800 get made, list gets near 2000 before it has 2 be cut

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How many will get promoted for 2018?



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Sgthopefull2017 wrote:
brooklynbacon wrote:
Sgthopefull2017 wrote:

the board has an archive of all the conversations. It looks like the 2007 list had only 329 people on it and 2008 had 671.


 Those are the two hardest sgts exams ever given. You cant compare a fair exam with throwouts to those. Its like apples and airplanes.


 Needs of the department are needs of the department. Doesn't matter if a test is easy or hard, they can't promote if they don't have the spots. the relevance here is it took about 11 months to go through the 2007 list and roughly a year and a half to go through 671 names. 671 x 3 will only put you at list 2000, and that's already 4.5 years out if they promote at the same rate. 


 

It took almost 2 and half years to promote the 671.

 

And id say 450 get promoted in 2018.



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cop wrote:

I dont believe they can cut it without a lawsuit. i think they would have to amend the notice of examination. With that said I think 2400 will be made if not all. Also a lot are ready to leave just waiting for final pay increase along with no active list.



-- Edited by cop on Saturday 30th of December 2017 01:50:04 AM


 Didnt the 2006 Lt list have a lawsuit because it got cut? That went nowhere and it got cut at a 78.



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Just to be clear, you guys are talking about the list expiring after 4 years,  not being cut



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Had a SGT who was on the 99 list. Approx 3600 all who cleared got promoted

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eze


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3rdtimetheCharm wrote:

Had a SGT who was on the 99 list. Approx 3600 all who cleared got promoted


 I was promoted off of the 99 list. There were 1764 people +- on that list. We all made it. 



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3rdtimetheCharm wrote:

2011 list had 1700 about. All made it (who cleared) in three years. No Sgt list in the last ten years has been cut.


 2011 list cleared in 4 years not 3. 

 

2013 test of approx 965 cleared in 2.5 Years not counting the Small # of reject Holdovers.

 

2,700 divided by 4 Years = 675 Each Year need to be made to kill the entire list 4 years from the first person who gets made. 

Unless they Change the Rules and Extend it past 4 years... 

 

everyone is ASSUMING the job CANNOT have MORE sergeants. Just because there is the list of Sergeant Vacencies does NOT mean they cannot PROMOTE BEYOND that Vacancy Amount. We all knows theres 1 squad in a command WITHOUT A Sergeant. 

1 platoon without a Lieutenant. 

 

They CAN have a surplus because over time it will drop again anyway. 

 

 

Everyone hits the panic button because of the 4 year RULE. What IF that rule is lifted for an Exception.

 

there are exceptions in the LAW, patrol guide, and Bloomberg went 3 Terms. 

 

Anything is possible as we see with this list. ALL ASSUMPTIONS of a cut list mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING !



-- Edited by JDMEVO9 on Saturday 30th of December 2017 03:34:59 AM



-- Edited by JDMEVO9 on Saturday 30th of December 2017 03:35:49 AM

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Your 2017 Sgt Exam Failed-Passers be like ....

abc-bell-curve

 

 



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List wont be cut but it does expire after 4 years.  A bunch of 06 Sgts sued about the LT list expiring and that got chucked out of court in about two seconds.  Could the job make everyone?  Maybe with a perfect storm of retirements, new hires, etc.  I think theyll make around 2000 to 2200 in 4 Years but well see.  The 2011 Sgt list went just over 3.5 years active. They could of got through 2K on that list, but that would Of been about it.  Congrats to all. I saw some real happy people today that picked up points.



-- Edited by bigfoot45 on Saturday 30th of December 2017 04:09:42 AM

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I think guys forget a couple of key things about promotions and what factors to consider.

1. BMOC classes are much bigger now than they used to be ever since the Academy moved to Queens. I think the max it can hold is 80 or so. A class of 70-80 is NOT unlikely. I'm not sure how many classes are held on average per year but if the job did 70 bodies for 9 out of 12 months for the next 4 years you will surpass 2500.

2. I know we like to talk about how you need more LTs in order to get Sgts, but ppl forget the constant which are Academy classes. The more cops you hire the more Sgts you will need.

3. The list says 2682 but it really isn't 2682. Several people have already resigned and left the job who are on this list. Other will get jammed up (Hate to say it but this is life and it happens every year). Some will not pass the CARB board.

4. The list will NOT be cut but it will EXPIRE after 4 years. If you look at 2013 list it took  about 3.5 years to promote the entire list but keep in mind there were a lot of classes that had less than 50 people in BMOC.

I think there is a real possibility that the vast majority will get made. The same people saying only 1600 will get made are the same people who didn't believe the list could even be 2600 people. Don't feed into the hype. If you are on this list be grateful.



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MBREEZE wrote:

I think guys forget a couple of key things about promotions and what factors to consider.

1. BMOC classes are much bigger now than they used to be ever since the Academy moved to Queens. I think the max it can hold is 80 or so. A class of 70-80 is NOT unlikely. I'm not sure how many classes are held on average per year but if the job did 70 bodies for 9 out of 12 months for the next 4 years you will surpass 2500.

(The size of the actual class does not matter what matters is how many they need to promote. They could put in a BMOC class of 1000 that just means they wouldn't promote for about 20 months. #1 makes no sense)

2. I know we like to talk about how you need more LTs in order to get Sgts, but ppl forget the constant which are Academy classes. The more cops you hire the more Sgts you will need.

(What you forget is that the people in the academy are replacing people retiring. The job is allotted a certain number of UMOS. When they hire they are replacing someone who left the job. Total headcount on the job is actually down. #2 also makes no sense).

 

3. The list says 2682 but it really isn't 2682. Several people have already resigned and left the job who are on this list. Other will get jammed up (Hate to say it but this is life and it happens every year). Some will not pass the CARB board.

(This is somewhat true. People on this list have resigned/retired/left the job/been promoted. Will that shorten the list significantly? Probably not)

 

4. The list will NOT be cut but it will EXPIRE after 4 years. If you look at 2013 list it took  about 3.5 years to promote the entire list but keep in mind there were a lot of classes that had less than 50 people in BMOC.

(Again with the nonsense class size argument. This is essentially the same as #1)

 

I think there is a real possibility that the vast majority will get made. The same people saying only 1600 will get made are the same people who didn't believe the list could even be 2600 people. Don't feed into the hype. If you are on this list be grateful.

 

(The people saying only 1600 made are using actual relevant data to try to predict the future. The historic average is around 40 promoted a month. I would say their estimate is a little low. 48 x 40 = 1920. Around 1920 will be made.)


 



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MBREEZE wrote:

I think guys forget a couple of key things about promotions and what factors to consider.

1. BMOC classes are much bigger now than they used to be ever since the Academy moved to Queens. I think the max it can hold is 80 or so. A class of 70-80 is NOT unlikely. I'm not sure how many classes are held on average per year but if the job did 70 bodies for 9 out of 12 months for the next 4 years you will surpass 2500.

2. I know we like to talk about how you need more LTs in order to get Sgts, but ppl forget the constant which are Academy classes. The more cops you hire the more Sgts you will need.

3. The list says 2682 but it really isn't 2682. Several people have already resigned and left the job who are on this list. Other will get jammed up (Hate to say it but this is life and it happens every year). Some will not pass the CARB board.

4. The list will NOT be cut but it will EXPIRE after 4 years. If you look at 2013 list it took  about 3.5 years to promote the entire list but keep in mind there were a lot of classes that had less than 50 people in BMOC.

I think there is a real possibility that the vast majority will get made. The same people saying only 1600 will get made are the same people who didn't believe the list could even be 2600 people. Don't feed into the hype. If you are on this list be grateful.

 

Classes aren't bigger ... now then they were .. there used to be 100 person classes in the 90's. you can go and read old finest messages. And before they promoted all those guys at the end of the last list for the LT exam some classes were 40-60 not 75-80. 

 



-- Edited by JPAL91091 on Sunday 7th of January 2018 03:45:30 AM

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You can't compare this list to the ones that came before. This is uncharted territory. If the job planned on only promoting 1600 or 1800 or even 2000 they wouldn't have curved this exam the way that they did to get the size up to 2682. Clearly by the list even being the size it is and the fact that the NYPD enacted a curve (something people also said would never happen again), shows that you just can't go by what happened in the past. Most of us have been on this job long enough to know that nothing happens by chances. Everything gets more and more micromanaged and meticulous as time goes on. People thought a nearly 2700 list was impossible and surprise! It happened. Academy classes going in may get bigger. The job may want more supervision as a whole, especially with the Body Cameras rolling out department wide and the insane amount of scrutiny that we as a department are going to be under as well as the amount of supervisory responsibilities that coincide with cops and detectives having body cameras. Also add in the fact that the LT list and CPT list are both gonna a lot bigger than the what came before. (which is funny because everyone expects the job to make it through both of those lists.) I mean how messed up would it be for the people who went to the protests, thought the failed, made it to the list, and then got cut again. I honestly feel like this whole list has a chance. And if not, at least 2300s and below. Hell, I mean whose to say the PC won't just extend all three lists expiration dates to go 5 years instead of 4. I doubt the job would let all 3 expire. Everyone's quite now but we all know the uproar that would bring. With that I finish by borrowing a line from the new star wars movie... "Let the past die." What comes in the future, may surprise a lot of you.

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There was no curve. People werent give 'free' points. The huge list is due to a majority of you guys protesting well.

Did the job purposely give the hardest sgts exams in 2007 and 2008 where both exams combined were 900 people?

Did the job purposely make fair Lt exams in 2003 and 2006 to have the lists cut at 82 and 78 respectively?

The huge lists of the sgt lt and capts exam were directly because of the previous lt exam that had mass cheating and a lawsuit. The job didnt want another promotional exam to make the Daily News and and thus said 'give fair exams.'



-- Edited by brooklynbacon on Sunday 7th of January 2018 12:46:09 PM



-- Edited by brooklynbacon on Sunday 7th of January 2018 12:48:00 PM

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The protests helped but not as many questions got tossed as you think. There were two initial lists. One that was only 1400 in size and the 2682 one. I was told that the 2600+ lists was the more likely. Trust me there were two lists. I know that for a fact and if anyone else on this site knows that please back me up and confirm. At first I thought they were different because of the amount of throwouts, cause I refused to believe a curve was a possibility even though I was told it was the truth. And if Rookiescum said there was a curve. Believe me. There was a curve.

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I thought our test was pretty much bulletproof after I took it. I protested the family question and it looks like I got it back. The others I got wrong were my own error. I thought the family question was the only protestable question on the exam and I wouldnt have been surprised if it wasnt tossed. I find it hard to believe that the TVB tossed out that many questions. One observation I made in regards to to the list was the scores. My score isnt calculated correctly based on the breakdown provided on the NOE. Neither are none of my friends. Im not missing points either, the score is slightly higher and not by 1 full even point.

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Im waiting on these official scorecards so I can see what the actual raw score is. If their was some sort of curve or further score adjustment post TVB then that is complete BS. The test was very fair and it was completely unnecessary. If its just due to throwouts then the TVB was overly generous. 



-- Edited by Reds on Sunday 7th of January 2018 01:45:05 PM

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That test was air tight. Down to the fact that just about every question was a "most correct." The writers created a perfectly fair but tricky exam. There was no way in hell that the TVB pulled 10 or more questions from that test. No way. I know multiple people who got in the low 60s and ended up in the 70s, I know someone who got a 69 that ended up with an 82 and I doubt they were all lucky enough to pick up that many throwouts. The curve is real.




-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Sunday 7th of January 2018 01:57:01 PM

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IamTheLaw wrote:

That test was air tight. Down to the fact that just about every question was a "most correct." The writers created a perfectly fair but tricky exam. There was no way in hell that the TVB pulled 10 or more questions from that test. No way. I know multiple people who got in the low 60s and ended up in the 70s, I know someone who got a 69 that ended up with an 82 and I doubt they were all lucky enough to pick up that many throwouts. The curve is real.




-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Sunday 7th of January 2018 01:57:01 PM


 Dude, there was absolutely no curve on this exam. You really think DCAS would allow such a thing? That would be a lawsuit waiting to happen. Also the job has no input or say at all when it comes to formulating the list. The tvb (which the job does control) can make recommendations about what questions to throw out but DCAS ultimately makes the call. For the 2015 Lt exam the tvb recommended 5 or so throwouts...you know how many dcas threw out... 000!



-- Edited by Theforceisstrongwiththisone on Sunday 7th of January 2018 05:09:29 PM

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So please stop your nonsense about "a curve." DCAS just decided to follow the tvb's recommendations this time around. Case closed. Judge dredd, You are starting to sound like those ufo conspiracy nutjobs..lol.

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And mbreeze all of your points are garbage. Its all about vacancies..the job may over promote by like 50 or 100 sgt but not the 600 or so that will be left floundering when the list expires. If the job were to do such a thing then it would have to lower the headcount for every other rank including PO. If you really think the job is going to do that I have a bridge to sell you. So please stop spreading fake news!

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You guys have to live in reality...focus on the posts of logical guys (i.e., eze, bigfoot, brooklynbacon, and other gurus/legendary posters). Combined they have over decades of experience on promotional exams.

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Our department swirls with rumors when these lists drop, its always entertaining. The one rumor that did make sense to me, even though its probably not true, but actually should be true IMO, was that the department has plans to completely rewrite the PG (modernize it and take all the outdated crap out). Because this would take some time they created three long lists (Sgt, Lt, Cpt) to be able to draw from a large pool of future supervisors and not have to worry about giving a test while the PG is being rewritten. The reason why I hoped it is true is because 1. I want everybody to be promoted and 2. Our PG is a complete mess. At some point it will have to be rewritten, thats a fact. They cant keep putting bandaids in it in the form of IOs.

At the end of the day nobody really knows. I feel secure with my list number even though Im not as low as I would have liked, but I hope all of us get promoted.



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I'm not going to argue about this anymore. Just going to state that CURVES have happened in the past. I did not think that it was possible for it to happen again... BUT IT DID. And the Initial passing rate of this test was allegedly around the 800s as said by even the owner of this site, then became around 1215 after that FOIL request then magically ballooned to 2682 after the TVB. Really. Really. The test had its flaws but none to justify 10 plus thrown out questions. That being said, I will be back to say I told you so about the curve when you guys find out that it was true... Much like I did when I said that there was going to be a 2600+ person list and everyone thought I was just spouting EDP like nonsense then as well.

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Is this the largest Sgt list of all time?

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thejimmy wrote:

Is this the largest Sgt list of all time?


 Yes.



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Theforceisstrongwiththisone wrote:

And mbreeze all of your points are garbage. Its all about vacancies..the job may over promote by like 50 or 100 sgt but not the 600 or so that will be left floundering when the list expires. If the job were to do such a thing then it would have to lower the headcount for every other rank including PO. If you really think the job is going to do that I have a bridge to sell you. So please stop spreading fake news!


 Im not spreading"fake news" That was funny btw, i actually really laughed.  Im only stating my opinion.  I never stated it was the gospel.  Just my opinion.  Im fully aware of the vacancy issue.  With the class going in on Monday there are about 13 or so Sgt vacancies now.  Those nunbers need to rise,  i totally agree.  We need the Lt list and Cpt list to be established very soon so that the vacancies can double.  

P.S. There is a certain Dep Commissioner kid on this list and very low on the list at that and if you think for one second that things cant happen to make sure he is promoted,  then you haven't been on the job long enough and you have only seen 1 side of this job. 



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There absolutely was a curve.

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The test was not curved that in-basket was a mess on that exam



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I know for a fact there was a curve and no the in-basket was not a mess.  It was extremely easy.  I reviewed that entire exam.



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How exactly was this curve calculated?

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WHY WOULD THIS DEPARTMENT OR DCAS CURVE A TEST... WHEN THEY CAN JUST GIVE OTHER TEST DO THE MATH LET SAY 10,000 PEOPLE SIGNED UP FOR THE TEST THE FEE FOR THE TEST WAS 92 DOLLARS I THINK. THE CITY MADE CLOSE TO 1 MILLION DOLLARS WHY WOULD THEY CURVE IT? AND LOSE OUT ON OTHER MILLION DOLLARS YOUR CRAZY IF YOU THINK ITS CURVED THEY THROW OUT 12 QUESTION AT LEAST. 



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